Southeast Europe’s electricity import balance is likely to become more uneven this autumn as cooling demand fades but industrial load returns and shorter daylight hours increase evening dependence on conventional generation and cross-border supply.
Romania entered September as one of the most exposed markets.
Average consumption was around 5.43 GW in August, while the system was a net importer by roughly 341 MW, with domestic generation covering about 94% of demand.
Nuclear availability will be decisive for the autumn balance.
Hungary should remain structurally dependent on imports despite Paks nuclear generation, particularly during high-demand periods when solar output falls.
Croatia and Slovenia are also likely to remain import-oriented, although reservoir hydro can materially change their positions after periods of stronger rainfall.
Bulgaria has the strongest potential to remain a regional exporter when Kozloduy is fully available. In June, its exports substantially exceeded imports as nuclear, hydro and rapidly growing solar generation supported the balance.
Greece will continue oscillating between renewable surplus and gas-backed deficit periods.
Its import requirement should weaken as summer cooling demand falls, but gas generation will remain critical during weak wind and post-sunset hours.
The Western Balkans will remain more weather-sensitive.
Serbia’s lignite and hydro fleet can cover domestic demand during favourable periods but outages or drought rapidly increase imports. Montenegro’s balance remains highly dependent on Pljevlja thermal availability and hydro conditions.
Albania remains the region’s clearest hydrological swing market, moving from exporter in wet periods to expensive importer during drought.
North Macedonia is likely to remain structurally import-dependent, while Bosnia can return to export when hydro conditions improve but remains exposed to ageing coal assets.
The autumn market will therefore not divide simply between exporters and importers.
The more important distinction will be between systems with firm domestic flexibility and those forced to buy electricity during expensive evening hours.
