Azerbaijan is withholding a final investment decision on expanding the Southern Gas Corridor until European buyers offer firmer long-term purchase commitments and financing becomes clearer.
The proposed expansion would support an EU target of importing at least 20 billion cubic metres annually by 2027. Deliveries reached about 11.3 billion cubic metres in 2025, up from 8.1 billion in 2021 but still well below that objective.
Options include increasing TANAP capacity from 16.2 billion to 31.7 billion cubic metres annually and TAP from 10.5 billion to 23.3 billion. The South Caucasus Pipeline could expand from 24 billion to 33.6 billion cubic metres.
A full expansion is estimated to require about five years, making the timing of commercial commitments critical.
The corridor supplies Europe through Georgia and Turkey, with gas entering Greece, Albania and Italy. Additional deliveries can reach Bulgaria and neighbouring markets through the Greece–Bulgaria interconnector.
For European buyers, securing more Azerbaijani gas now depends on accepting longer contractual commitments while the bloc pursues lower fossil-fuel consumption.
