Azerbaijan is seeking to increase gas exports to existing European buyers and open additional supply routes, positioning the EU as the central market for the country’s next phase of upstream and pipeline investment.
Azerbaijani gas is now supplied to 10 EU member states, with Austria and Germany joining the customer base during 2026. Europe accounts for approximately half of the country’s total gas exports, while deliveries to EU buyers have increased by 65% since 2022.
Several new contractual opportunities are under discussion. Serbia is seeking higher import volumes, Czechia plans to purchase approximately 2 bcm annually, and Slovakia is considering a long-term supply arrangement. Turkey has separately concluded a 15-year gas supply agreement, strengthening Azerbaijan’s position across both European and regional markets.
The commercial challenge is moving beyond diplomatic commitments. Additional exports require investment in new fields, processing facilities and transmission capacity. These projects need long-term revenue visibility, yet European financial institutions are increasingly cautious about financing hydrocarbon infrastructure with operating lives extending into the period of accelerated decarbonisation.
President Ilham Aliyev has argued that long-term supply contracts are essential if producers are expected to commit capital to new gas developments. From Azerbaijan’s perspective, short-duration European purchasing strategies cannot provide sufficient certainty for multi-billion-euro upstream investments.
The start of gas production from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli field in June strengthens the immediate supply position, but sustained export growth will require a wider development programme. Additional capacity through the Southern Gas Corridor must also be coordinated with European downstream infrastructure, particularly the interconnectors connecting Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania and Central Europe.
For Southeast Europe, larger Azerbaijani volumes could improve supplier diversification and reduce the pricing power associated with concentrated import routes. Serbia’s planned gas-network expansion, Bulgaria’s access to TAP and LNG through Greece, and the development of north-south transmission corridors could gradually create a more competitive regional market.
The tension between energy security and decarbonisation remains embedded in the financing structure. European buyers want diversified gas without accepting excessive long-term volume exposure, while Azerbaijan needs durable contracts before funding new production. The physical resource base is less of a constraint than the commercial framework needed to bring it to market.
