Bulgarian state-owned supplier Bulgargaz has proposed an August wholesale natural-gas price slightly above €37/MWh, approximately 1% below July’s approved level of €37.70/MWh.
The modest reduction follows a 5.84% increase in July and comes despite scheduled maintenance affecting deliveries under Bulgaria’s long-term Azerbaijani supply arrangement. Azerbaijani gas will remain the principal source for the regulated market, but contracted volumes will temporarily decline during August.
Bulgargaz plans to cover the shortfall by withdrawing gas from the Chiren underground storage facility and importing additional LNG through terminals in Greece. Part of the LNG volume will subsequently be reinjected into Chiren to maintain storage levels required under Bulgaria’s emergency-supply plan.
No LNG deliveries through Turkish terminals are planned for August. The supply structure therefore places greater emphasis on the Greek route, reinforcing the importance of regional interconnectors and access to Greek LNG infrastructure.
The proposed price suggests that Bulgargaz has been able to secure replacement volumes without creating a major increase in the regulated cost base. However, the difference between the preliminary August price and July’s level is narrow enough to remain sensitive to LNG procurement costs, storage withdrawals and changes in European hub prices before final approval.
The Commission for Energy and Water Regulation, KEVR, will approve the final price on the first day of August after a public discussion and an update of the supplier’s cost calculations.
For Bulgaria’s electricity market, a regulated gas price around €37/MWh provides relatively competitive fuel input for efficient combined-cycle plants. At approximately 55% efficiency, the fuel component would be close to €67/MWh of electricity before carbon and operating costs. With EU allowances near €79/t, total variable generation costs would still move above €95/MWh, depending on plant efficiency and emissions intensity.
Gas-fired units will consequently remain commercially relevant during evening scarcity and low-renewable periods, but they will struggle to compete with nuclear, hydro and low-marginal-cost renewable production during solar-rich hours. Bulgaria’s diversified supply structure allows gas generation to provide flexibility without becoming the dominant baseload source.
