According to draft plan for the development of Bulgaria’s electricity transmission network in the 2022-2031 period developed by the system operator ESO, the gross electricity consumption in Bulgaria will not exceed 43,298 GWh by 2031.
Based on the current data, in 2031 the absolute maximum electricity load is expected to be 7,670 MW and the maximum load per average workday – 7,130 MW.
The forecast for the development of the gross national electricity consumption takes into account the estimates for the period until 2050 of the European Commission, the Sustainable Energy Development Agency, the Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, and the Ministry of Finance (regarding GDP).
In accordance with the investment intentions for the 2022-2031 period, it is planned to build 5,881 MW of electricity generation capacities, of which 4,858 MW in renewable energy. The share of energy from hydropower plants in electricity consumption is expected to reach up to 30 % in 2031.
The draft plan envisages new nuclear capacities in the 2030-2040 period. Even if such a project gets launched in 2022, it cannot be put into operation before 2032, which goes beyond the period covered by the report. Since the scale of these capacities is concentrated, and not decentralized like that of hydroelectric plants, their effect on the development of the electricity transmission network is significant and requires continuous pre- project research and coordination procedures.
Capacity balances show drastic disparity in the options for meeting domestic demand and possibly exporting electricity. In the winter season, it will not be possible to export electricity, and in some years it will even be necessary to resort to all available sources of additional services and/or electricity import. In the summer season, the possible export will depend on hydroelectric plants’ production, the draft plan shows.
According to ESO, the implementation of the plan for the electricity transmission network’s development until 2031 will provide the necessary security of electricity transmission in case of normal and repair schemes, including the necessary electricity exchange with neighboring countries.
