Natural gas prices in Bulgaria are expected to remain largely unchanged in June, despite a broader rise in European spot market prices driven by geopolitical uncertainty and tightening supply conditions. According to a pricing proposal submitted by Bulgargaz to the Energy and Water Regulatory Commission (KEVR), the regulated gas price for next month is projected at €35.62/MWh, only slightly below May levels. In contrast, European spot gas prices have climbed to around €46/MWh.
Bulgaria’s supply mix for June will include contracted Azerbaijani gas as well as LNG deliveries arriving through Turkish terminals operated by BOTAŞ. Bulgargaz has also recently secured an agreement with Shell for an LNG cargo intended for both summer consumption and injections into the country’s Chiren underground gas storage facility. Due to scheduled maintenance at the Alexandroupoli LNG terminal, which will remain closed until 1 July, the cargo will be rerouted through Turkey.
A key factor supporting relatively lower gas prices in Bulgaria in recent months has been its long-term supply agreement with Azerbaijan. However, the pricing formula is updated quarterly and linked to oil derivative prices with a significant delay of around nine months. Earlier this year, management at Bulgargaz warned that higher global oil prices seen in March and April—when Brent crude briefly exceeded $120 per barrel and averaged above $100—are expected to impact Azerbaijani gas pricing starting in July.
At the same time, Bulgaria and the wider European market are entering a challenging gas storage refill season. European countries significantly depleted reserves during the winter, expecting lower LNG prices later in the year. However, disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, including concerns around the Strait of Hormuz and reported attacks on gas infrastructure in Qatar, have complicated those expectations.
According to Gas Infrastructure Europe data, EU gas storage facilities are currently about 39% full, which is low for this stage of the season compared to recent years. KEVR has noted that Bulgargaz already has contracts and schedules in place for injections into the Chiren storage facility. Under EU regulations, member states are required to fill storage sites to 90% capacity ahead of the winter heating season. Bulgaria’s Chiren underground gas storage is currently only 22.6% full, highlighting the urgency of upcoming injection efforts.
