The Southeast European thermal generation mix shifted visibly toward coal and lignite in Week 34, providing another sign that high gas prices are changing the short-term economics of conventional power generation.
Total thermal electricity production across the monitored markets declined 13.07% compared with Week 30, falling from 7,294.50 GWh to 6,341.11 GWh. The decline was concentrated in gas-fired generation, which dropped 30.32% to 2,718.16 GWh. Coal and lignite output, meanwhile, increased 6.76%.
The direction of travel is significant. European TTF gas was trading above €60/MWh throughout the week and reached €65.87/MWh on 21 August. At those fuel-price levels, gas-fired power generation becomes increasingly expensive, improving the relative short-term dispatch position of other thermal technologies where they remain available.
The result is not a uniform return to coal across the region. Rather, Week 34 suggests that existing solid-fuel plants regained part of their short-term competitive role as gas became more expensive. The report explicitly identifies a shift away from gas-fired generation toward coal and lignite, even though the increase in solid-fuel output was insufficient to compensate for the overall decline in thermal generation.
Individual markets moved differently. Romania’s thermal generation increased 45.86%, Hungary’s 149.48%, Serbia’s 12.45%, Croatia’s 19.30% and Greece’s 7.45%. Türkiye recorded a 26.16% decline, while Italy’s thermal generation fell 12.90%. Hungary’s increase largely reflected higher gas-fired output, showing that national generation constraints can outweigh the broader regional trend.
For electricity-market participants, the development is important because the thermal mix determines both marginal generation costs and the system’s response to renewable volatility. If expensive gas is increasingly displaced by coal during normal hours, gas plants may become concentrated in the highest-value periods. That can sharpen intraday price spreads.
Week 34 therefore points to an increasingly segmented thermal stack. Coal and lignite can recover energy-market share when gas prices rise, but gas retains value as flexible generation during scarcity periods.
The data do not show a structural long-term reversal in the energy transition. They do, however, show that short-term power-market economics remain highly responsive to relative fuel costs. When gas becomes expensive enough, existing coal and lignite capacity can regain dispatch relevance very quickly.
