Daily capacity auctions in Q2 2026 showed that market participants were placing increasing value on several Southeast European electricity corridors, even as overall electricity trade between the Western Balkans and the EU declined.
The highest average export-direction auction values were recorded on the Montenegro–Italy and Serbia–Hungary borders. Capacity from Montenegro towards Italy averaged around €8.59/MWh, while Serbia-to-Hungary capacity reached approximately €6.95/MWh. The results reflected persistent price premiums in Italy and Hungary, limited transmission availability and strong competition among market participants seeking access to the corridors.
The Serbia–Romania border also recorded an increase from a relatively low starting point. By contrast, the strongest capacity values on the North Macedonia–Greece and Serbia–Bulgaria borders appeared in the import direction, consistent with the seasonal return of electricity flows from EU markets into the Western Balkans.
Transmission capacity prices generally reflect expectations of day-ahead market arbitrage. However, they are also influenced by available cross-border margins, competition among bidders, network outages and traders’ expectations at the time of the auction. Q2 demonstrated that the short-term value of a corridor can strengthen even when earlier annual capacity auctions had indicated more cautious market expectations.
The Serbia–Hungary corridor benefited from the Hungarian price premium as well as potential additional demand linked to electricity flows towards Ukraine. Montenegro–Italy continued to command a premium because of the substantial Italian market spread and the limited capacity of the submarine interconnector.
The diverging signals across individual borders suggest that Southeast Europe can no longer be treated as a single, uniform arbitrage region. Corridor-specific fundamentals are becoming increasingly important, with the value of a transmission right depending on destination prices, available network capacity, demand conditions and the ability to demonstrate the required carbon status of exported electricity.
For electricity traders, this increases the importance of hourly and directional analysis. Quarterly or monthly average price spreads can hide short periods of extreme scarcity and high arbitrage value. Transmission capacity therefore needs to be assessed against the expected generation profile, balancing exposure and the CBAM status of the underlying electricity supply.
For renewable project developers, the auction results also have direct implications for PPA pricing and project economics. A wind or solar project targeting the Hungarian or Italian market cannot rely solely on the destination wholesale price. The financial model must also account for the cost, availability and potential volatility of cross-border transmission rights.
The emerging regional picture places the highest value on corridors connecting the Western Balkans with structurally higher-priced markets and growing demand centres. Serbia–Hungary and Montenegro–Italy remain at the centre of this structure, while Greece is increasingly positioned as a source of lower-carbon electricity for neighbouring markets.
The Q2 results therefore point to a more fragmented and corridor-driven Southeast European electricity market, where transmission capacity itself is becoming a strategic asset and its value increasingly depends on the interaction between price spreads, network constraints, generation characteristics and CBAM compliance.
