Southeast Europe faces a potentially sharper autumn shock from diesel than from crude oil as record refining margins, Middle East disruption and restricted Russian exports lift transport and industrial fuel costs.
Brent crude has moved above $95/barrel, but European diesel markets have tightened even more sharply.
Physical diesel refining margins reached around $95-100/barrel in early September, more than double June levels, as European buyers competed for limited supplies from the United States, Middle East and Asia.
That creates particular exposure for Southeast Europe, where diesel remains central to road freight, agriculture, construction and mining.
Serbia faces an additional country-specific risk.
The OFAC licence allowing NIS to import crude, operate the Pančevo refinery and conduct supply-security transactions expires on Sept. 30, making an extension or ownership solution a major October market variable.
Croatia is comparatively better positioned after INA completed its nearly €700 million Rijeka refinery upgrade, which is designed to raise diesel output by around 30% and reduce import dependence.
Romania also retains substantial domestic refining capacity.
For the broader region, September prices are likely to stay elevated while Russia’s diesel export restrictions remain in place and global refining capacity is stretched.
October could soften if export flows normalise and refinery maintenance ends.
But a crude-price retreat would not automatically produce an equivalent fall in diesel.
The main autumn risk is therefore a refined-product shortage premium, which could raise logistics, agricultural and industrial costs even without another major rise in Brent.
