Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market trend review shows that electricity demand across Southeast Europe followed very different paths, with some markets recording higher consumption while others experienced notable declines. Despite these contrasting demand patterns, wholesale electricity prices increased across most European SEE markets, highlighting that May’s price strength was driven by a broader combination of market factors rather than demand alone.
Among the region’s largest markets, Serbia recorded one of the strongest month-on-month increases in electricity demand at 4.26%, followed by Italy with 3.29% and Greece with 2.44%. Higher consumption supported elevated electricity prices in these markets, with Serbia’s average wholesale price reaching €96.63/MWh, Italy remaining the region’s highest-priced market at €119.35/MWh, and Greece averaging €88.98/MWh despite strong renewable and hydroelectric generation. In Serbia, rising demand coincided with weaker hydro production and net electricity imports of 422.97 GWh, further tightening market conditions.
In contrast, several other Southeast European markets recorded lower electricity demand while still experiencing higher wholesale prices. Electricity consumption declined by 9.66% in Bulgaria, 7.51% in Hungary, 5.09% in Türkiye, 4.24% in Croatia, and 3.59% in Romania. Nevertheless, Bulgaria’s average electricity price increased 11.08%, Hungary’s rose 10.31%, Croatia recorded a 14.55% increase, and Romania posted the largest rise at 14.66%. Türkiye was the notable exception, with average electricity prices falling to €11.17/MWh as weaker demand coincided with abundant hydro generation and a markedly different market environment.
The May results demonstrate that electricity price formation across Southeast Europe is becoming increasingly regional rather than being determined solely by domestic demand. Markets with declining electricity consumption can still experience higher prices when they depend on imports, remain exposed to natural gas as the marginal fuel, face weaker hydro generation or are closely interconnected with higher-priced neighbouring markets. Croatia illustrates this trend, with lower demand accompanied by net electricity imports of 583.90 GWh and a sharp increase in wholesale prices. Romania experienced a similar situation, where falling demand coincided with a 77.31% decline in nuclear generation, higher gas-fired output and continued reliance on electricity imports.
According to Electricity.Trade, the key lesson from May is that electricity demand must be analysed together with the region’s evolving supply structure. While changes in consumption remain an important market indicator, they no longer consistently determine wholesale price movements. Instead, prices increasingly reflect the combined influence of electricity demand, renewable generation, hydrological conditions, import dependency, cross-border power flows and natural gas prices. As a result, accurate forecasting in Southeast Europe increasingly depends on integrated market models that simultaneously assess electricity load, generation mix, fuel costs and transmission constraints.
