The European Union is unlikely to introduce a full ban on Russian oil imports or prohibit maritime services linked to Russian crude shipments in its upcoming 21st sanctions package, as member states remain divided over the adoption of tougher measures.
According to diplomatic sources, discussions in Brussels have instead shifted toward the future of the existing oil price cap mechanism, with policymakers focusing on how to preserve its effectiveness amid rapidly changing market conditions.
Rather than expanding restrictions on oil trade and transportation, EU governments are now considering whether to maintain the current price ceiling for Russian crude. Officials are concerned that the existing formula, which automatically adjusts the cap based on market developments, could unintentionally weaken the impact of sanctions if global oil prices continue to rise.
Under rules introduced in 2025, the maximum permitted price for Russia’s Urals crude is set at 15% below the average market price and is reviewed every six months. European shipping, insurance, and related service providers are prohibited from handling Russian oil sold above that threshold.
Recent developments in global energy markets have complicated the functioning of the system. Higher crude prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and disruptions affecting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, have increased the likelihood that the next scheduled revision could significantly raise the allowable price for Russian exports.
The current cap stands at $44.1 per barrel. If the automatic adjustment mechanism remains unchanged, the next review—expected later this summer—could lift the limit to around $65 per barrel. Such an increase would substantially reduce the pressure that sanctions are intended to place on Russian oil revenues.
As a result, EU officials are reportedly examining options to temporarily freeze the existing ceiling rather than allow it to rise automatically. Supporters of this approach argue that maintaining the current level would preserve the effectiveness of the sanctions regime without requiring agreement on more controversial restrictions that currently lack broad backing among member states.
