Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on the ICE market started the second week of July at a weekly low settlement price of $71.99/bbl on Monday, July 6, almost unchanged from the previous Friday. Prices then recovered during the week, reaching a peak of $78.02/bbl on July 8 before easing slightly in the final trading sessions. By Friday, July 10, Brent settled at $76.01/bbl, representing a 5.4% increase compared with the previous Friday, according to data analysed by AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
The increase in crude oil prices was mainly influenced by renewed geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. New military actions carried out by both countries before the start of the week increased concerns over possible disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical energy route responsible for around 20% of global oil and gas trade. Despite continued diplomatic discussions, uncertainty over potential supply disruptions kept a risk premium embedded in oil prices throughout the week.
European natural gas markets also recorded significant gains during the period. TTF gas futures for the front-month contract on the ICE market reached their weekly low of €44.13/MWh on Monday, July 6, before rising steadily to a weekly maximum of €50.10/MWh on Thursday, July 9. This marked the highest level since May 20. On Friday, July 10, prices declined slightly to €48.66/MWh, but remained 7.6% above the previous Friday’s settlement price.
The upward movement in gas prices was driven by similar concerns surrounding LNG supply security and Middle East tensions. Increased risks to LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz raised fears over possible disruptions to global gas flows, supporting higher European prices. Although prices moderated slightly at the end of the week as diplomatic contacts continued between Washington and Tehran, European gas inventories remained below their five-year seasonal average, keeping market conditions relatively tight.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for the December 2026 reference contract on the EEX market reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €81.81/t on Monday, July 6. The level was 1.5% higher than the previous Friday and represented the highest price since February 5. Prices then declined during the week, reaching a minimum of €79.04/t on July 8. By Friday, July 10, the settlement price stood at €79.21/t, which was 1.7% lower than the previous Friday.
Overall, European energy commodity markets in the second week of July were shaped by geopolitical risks, LNG supply uncertainty and gas market fundamentals. Oil and gas prices gained support from concerns over potential disruptions in the Middle East, while carbon allowance prices remained relatively stable after reaching multi-month highs, AleaSoft Energy Forecasting reports.
