During the second week of March, settlement prices of Brent oil futures for the Front Month in the ICE market remained above $90/bbl, except on Tuesday, March 10, when futures reached their weekly minimum of $87.80/bbl. Prices then trended upward, peaking at $103.14/bbl on Friday, March 13. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked an 11% increase compared to the previous Friday and the highest level since August 30, 2022.
The price movements were driven by ongoing Middle East instability, which continued to disrupt supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Tuesday’s drop followed statements from the US president suggesting a possible near-term resolution to the conflict, alongside news that G7 countries could release oil from strategic reserves. Despite these factors, prices surged again later in the week as the conflict persisted, even after the International Energy Agency approved the largest release of emergency oil reserves in its history.
TTF gas futures for the Front Month in the ICE market also experienced volatility. Prices reached their weekly maximum of €56.45/MWh on Monday, March 9—the highest since February 12, 2025. Following a 16% drop, the weekly minimum of €47.39/MWh was recorded on Tuesday, March 10. Prices then stabilized around €50/MWh for the remaining sessions, finishing at €50.12/MWh on Friday, March 13, 6.1% below the previous Friday. The fluctuations were linked to supply concerns stemming from Middle East instability and low European gas storage levels, currently below 29%.
Regarding CO₂ emission allowance futures in the EEX market, the December 2026 contract reached a weekly high of €72.93/t on Tuesday, March 10. Prices declined until Thursday, March 12, hitting a weekly low of €68.75/t, the lowest since May 2, 2025. By Friday, March 13, the settlement price rose slightly to €69.18/t, still 2% below the previous week’s close.
Overall, the second week of March highlighted significant volatility in energy markets, with Brent oil, TTF gas, and CO₂ allowances all impacted by geopolitical tensions and supply uncertainties, AleaSoft reports.
