During the first week of March, Brent oil futures for the Front Month on the ICE market saw notable fluctuations. The weekly minimum settlement price was reached on Monday, March 2, at $77.74/bbl. Following an upward trend throughout the week, the futures climbed to a maximum settlement price of $92.69/bbl on Friday, March 6. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this marked a 28% increase compared to the previous Friday and represented the highest level since September 30, 2023. Concerns over supply disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East, including attacks on oil facilities and temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, drove the price rally.
On the TTF gas futures market in ICE, Front Month contracts reached a weekly low of €44.51/MWh on Monday, March 2, already 39% higher than the previous Friday. Prices continued to rise, hitting the weekly maximum of €54.29/MWh on Tuesday, March 3, marking the highest level since February 13, 2025. A slight decline occurred on March 4, but prices climbed again in the later sessions of the week, ending at €53.39/MWh on Friday, March 6, which is 67% higher than the previous Friday. Rising tensions in the Middle East, including disruptions at Qatari LNG facilities, closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and threats from Russia to limit supplies to Europe, coupled with low European gas storage levels (below 30%, under 15% in some countries), contributed to the price increase.
Meanwhile, CO₂ emission allowance futures for December 2026 on the EEX market reached their weekly maximum settlement price of €73.33/t on Tuesday, March 3. Prices then slightly decreased, remaining under €71/t during the last three sessions. The weekly minimum was €70.36/t on Thursday, March 5, before a slight rebound to €70.59/t on Friday. AleaSoft Energy Forecasting noted that this represented a 0.4% increase compared to the previous Friday.
Overall, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, combined with supply concerns and low storage levels in Europe, were the main drivers behind the sharp movements in oil, gas, and CO₂ futures during the first week of March, AleaSoft reports.
