Brent crude oil futures remained relatively stable during the first week of July, following the decline recorded in the previous week as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East eased. Front-month Brent contracts on the ICE market reached a weekly settlement high of $73.15/bbl on Monday, 29 June, before falling to a low of $71.57/bbl on Wednesday, 1 July. According to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s analysis, this represented the lowest settlement level for Brent since 27 February.
Crude oil prices recovered modestly toward the end of the week, with the Brent front-month contract closing at $72.12/bbl on Friday, 3 July. The settlement price was almost unchanged from the previous Friday, increasing by only 0.2%, indicating continued stability in the oil market despite ongoing uncertainty.
The relatively stable performance of Brent futures reflected improving conditions around the Strait of Hormuz, where shipping activity continued to normalise after earlier disruptions. At the same time, progress in discussions between the United States and Iran contributed to expectations of lower geopolitical risk, reducing the additional risk premium that had supported oil prices in previous weeks.
Meanwhile, European natural gas markets followed a different trend, with TTF futures moving higher throughout the first week of July. Front-month TTF gas contracts traded on the ICE market increased from €42.57/MWh on Monday, 29 June, reaching a weekly peak of €45.22/MWh on Friday, 3 July. Based on AleaSoft Energy Forecasting’s data analysis, the final settlement was 11% above the previous Friday’s level.
The increase in TTF gas prices was mainly linked to seasonal storage requirements ahead of the winter period. European market participants continued to focus on rebuilding gas inventories, while stronger demand from the power sector in some countries provided additional support. High temperatures combined with lower solar photovoltaic generation increased the need for gas-fired electricity production.
European carbon allowance prices also moved higher during the week, with December 2026 EUA futures traded on the EEX market reaching a weekly low of €78.79/t on Monday, 29 June. After exceeding €80/t during the final session of June, carbon prices remained close to €79.50/t during the first two trading days of July.
By Friday, 3 July, EUA futures reached a weekly maximum of €80.59/t, representing a 0.4% increase compared with the previous Friday. The recovery in carbon prices followed the strengthening trend in TTF gas futures, once again highlighting the close relationship between European gas prices and emissions allowance markets.
Overall, early July energy commodity markets showed a clear split between stable crude oil prices and rising European gas and carbon markets. Reduced geopolitical pressure limited oil price movements, while gas storage needs and electricity sector demand supported higher TTF prices. The increase in gas prices also contributed to stronger EUA values, reinforcing the connection between European energy and carbon markets, AleaSoft reports.
