The European gas market is facing a challenging outlook for 2025, with prices expected to average €40 per MWh, but potentially rising to €70 per MWh—a 60% increase from current levels. This price surge is largely driven by several factors. Analysts at Bank of America project a 15% increase in gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub in 2025 compared to 2024, with the January 2025 contract recently trading at €44.8 per MWh.
A major concern for Europe is the inefficiency of its strategy to phase out Russian gas. European Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen admitted that the EU’s current approach has not achieved its intended goals, leaving many countries, like Austria, struggling to fully reject Russian gas while ensuring energy security. Although some nations are attempting to stockpile reserves, replenishing these stores in 2025 will be more difficult.
The competition for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is intensifying, especially as the expiration of the Russian gas transit agreement through Ukraine, coupled with payment difficulties due to US sanctions, creates additional supply constraints. As a result, any increases in LNG deliveries are expected to only replace the volumes lost from Russia, rather than creating a surplus. This combination of market dynamics points to a precarious energy situation in Europe over the next few years, with high gas prices and supply uncertainties likely to persist.
