European gas prices moved lower at the start of the week, with Dutch TTF futures sliding into the low €30s as weather forecasts turned milder and near-term heating demand expectations eased, cooling the rally observed in late January. The shift in sentiment highlighted how sensitive the market remains to short-term weather signals and demand outlooks.
TTF futures for March 2026 delivery on the ICE market softened during Week 06 (02–08 February 2026), with front-month prices trending downward and averaging €33.947/MWh, a -10.6% week-on-week decline. Prices opened at €33.95/MWh on 2 February before facing pressure in subsequent sessions. On 3 February, the contract dropped to €32.86/MWh (-3.2% d/d) amid easing concerns tied to milder forecasts and temporarily stable LNG inflows. However, the week also featured volatility, culminating in a sharp rally on 6 February when futures climbed to €35.69/MWh (+5.8% d/d). That rebound pointed to renewed worries about tightening balances, possibly linked to colder revisions, stronger gas-to-power demand, and caution over Europe’s ability to refill storage before the next injection season.
Prices softened even as storage levels remained historically low. EU inventories in early February were roughly 37–41% full, well below last year’s levels near 52% for the same period. Nationally, Germany stood near 30.2%, France around 29%, and the Netherlands close to 23.5%. Forward projections suggest EU stocks could fall toward 26% by the end of March, underscoring a relatively tight baseline despite the recent price retreat.
At the same time, robust LNG inflows continue to reshape Europe’s gas balance. The United States has reinforced its role as Europe’s top LNG supplier, accounting for more than half of imports by late 2025, with strong arrivals extending into early 2026. This steady flow has improved confidence in supply adequacy and reduced immediate availability fears, leading many traders to view LNG as a flexible buffer that compensates for low storage.
Commercial activity is also intensifying around long-term supply. Atlantic Sea LNG Trade is in discussions to secure up to 15 bcm per year of U.S. LNG for 20 years to serve southern Europe. The venture, created in 2025 between Greece’s DEPA Commercial and Aktor Group, focuses on importing LNG via terminals such as Revithoussa and Alexandroupolis and redistributing it across Southeast Europe and the Vertical Gas Corridor. These talks come as Europe prepares to phase out Russian gas imports by late 2027, heightening competition for reliable long-term LNG volumes and encouraging governments to lock in supply.
Company leadership has stressed the strategic urgency of these moves. CEO Alexandros Exarchou has argued that Europe should secure long-term U.S. LNG now to avoid future shortages and volatility, warning that markets could tighten significantly after 2030 for countries that fail to balance their portfolios in time.
Atlantic Sea LNG Trade is negotiating with multiple U.S. suppliers while holding parallel talks with buyers along the Vertical Gas Corridor, including Albania, North Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Moldova, Austria, and potentially Ukraine. Internal market analysis indicates a split demand profile, with higher household consumption in northern markets and stronger industrial demand toward the south. To address this, the company is building a diversified supply portfolio. A recent milestone includes its first U.S. LNG deal with Ukraine’s Naftogaz, involving a March 2026 cargo delivered to Revithoussa and transported onward through Bulgaria and Romania.
Further term negotiations are expected to conclude during a high-level meeting in Washington on February 24. This step builds on the venture’s earlier 20-year agreement with Venture Global, signed in late 2025, which laid the groundwork for Greece’s first long-term LNG partnership with a U.S. exporter and strengthened its role as a regional gas gateway.
