During the fourth week of April, Brent crude oil futures for the front-month contract on the ICE market followed a clear upward trajectory. On Monday, April 20, prices recorded the weekly low at $95.48/bbl. From there, a sustained rally pushed the contract to a weekly peak of $105.33/bbl on Friday, April 24. According to analysis from AleaSoft Energy Forecasting, this level was 17% higher than the previous Friday and marked the highest price since April 8.
The rise in oil prices was primarily driven by escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the lack of progress in negotiations between the United States and Iran. These developments heightened supply risk perceptions and reinforced bullish momentum in global oil markets.
TTF natural gas futures on the ICE market also moved higher during the same period. The front-month contract registered its weekly low at €40.29/MWh on Monday, April 20, before steadily increasing throughout the week. By Friday, April 24, prices reached a weekly high of €44.86/MWh, representing a 16% increase compared to the previous week’s final session, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Gas prices were similarly influenced by geopolitical developments. Rising tensions between the United States and Iran, combined with disruptions linked to restricted maritime flows through the Strait of Hormuz, raised concerns over global LNG supply security. The resulting risk premium supported higher prices across European gas benchmarks.
In contrast, EU carbon emission allowance futures (EUA) for the December 2026 contract on the EEX market showed a weaker performance. Prices opened the week at their high of €76.15/t on Monday, already down 1.7% from the previous Friday, and then declined further midweek. The weekly low was reached on Wednesday, April 22, at €74.42/t. Although a slight recovery followed in the final two sessions, prices remained below €75/t, closing on Friday, April 24 at €74.91/t, which was 3.3% lower week-on-week, according to AleaSoft Energy Forecasting.
Overall, the week was defined by strong upward momentum in both oil and gas markets driven by geopolitical risk, while carbon prices moved in the opposite direction, reflecting weaker sentiment and a modest corrective phase in emissions trading, AleaSoft reports.
