Imports of Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) into the European Union have risen to their highest quarterly level since the start of the war in Ukraine, underscoring the bloc’s continued dependence on global gas markets despite long-standing efforts to phase out Russian energy supplies.
According to research by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), EU member states imported around 6.9 billion cubic meters of Russian LNG in the first quarter of the year, marking a 16% increase year-on-year. The report also indicates that the upward trend continued into April, with imports estimated to be 17% higher compared to the same period last year.
While pipeline gas flows from Russia to Europe have largely collapsed since 2022, several EU countries have continued purchasing Russian LNG transported by tanker. Major buyers include France, Spain, and Belgium, which remain among the key entry points for these cargoes into the European market.
The increase in Russian LNG imports comes amid growing pressure on global energy markets, driven by supply disruptions linked to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. These disruptions have intensified competition for alternative gas supplies, particularly in the LNG segment.
At the same time, the European Union has maintained its strategic objective of fully eliminating Russian oil and gas imports by the end of 2027, even as short-term dependencies persist. In parallel, the bloc has significantly expanded its imports of LNG from the United States. Since 2021, US LNG deliveries to Europe have more than tripled, while shipments in the first quarter of this year alone rose by 27% year-on-year.
IEEFA estimates suggest that the United States could become the EU’s largest overall gas supplier by 2026, and could potentially account for around 80% of Europe’s LNG imports by 2028. However, the institute also warns that US LNG remains the most expensive source of gas supply for European consumers.
The study concludes that Europe’s strategy of replacing pipeline gas with LNG has not fully delivered the expected benefits in terms of energy security and diversification. Instead, ongoing geopolitical volatility and increasing reliance on US LNG continue to expose structural vulnerabilities in the EU’s current energy framework.
