Russian natural gas still represents roughly 12% of EU gas consumption, suggesting that the bloc’s gradual phase-out strategy has so far had only a limited impact on actual import volumes.
The REPower Gas Regulation, which entered into force on 18 March 2026, introduces a staged ban on Russian gas imports, with final restrictions scheduled for November 2027. Under this framework, the European Union Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators (ACER) has been assigned to monitor implementation through reports covering import contracts, transit flows, and supply diversification.
According to ACER, several EU member states continue to rely on Russian pipeline gas under long-term agreements. Countries such as Hungary, Slovakia, and Greece remain supplied through contracts estimated at 16–26 bcm annually. At the same time, Russian LNG continues to enter the EU via terminals in Spain, France, Belgium, and the Netherlands, with contract volumes ranging between 20–32 bcm per year.
The agency highlights that the EU’s highly integrated gas network makes it difficult to determine final consumption points, since gas imported into one member state can be re-exported and consumed elsewhere within the bloc.
Import data show no clear downward trend so far. Between January and May 2026, pipeline imports from Russia increased by 7% year-on-year, while LNG imports rose by 11%. Looking specifically at the post-regulation period, LNG inflows were up 17% year-on-year through May, despite tighter restrictions on short-term LNG contracts introduced in April. Pipeline imports also increased by 5% over the same period.
ACER attributes the LNG increase to several factors, including front-loading of deliveries ahead of stricter rules, contractual adjustments, and continued transshipment flows that were already in place. Broader geopolitical developments also influenced purchasing patterns and supply routes.
So far, the regulator has observed only limited direct effects from the new framework. One notable exception was a 65% drop in Russian pipeline flows through the Strandzha 1 interconnection at the Turkey–Bulgaria border after 18 March.
ACER expects the regulation’s impact to become significantly more pronounced once the remaining pipeline and LNG restrictions take effect in 2027. The agency also emphasized that it is still too early to assess the full effectiveness of the phase-out policy and plans to deliver a comprehensive evaluation in its 2027 monitoring report.
