TTF futures experienced significant volatility in Week 05, with prices reaching multi-month highs before a pullback into early February. European gas front-month contracts briefly approached €40/MWh, a peak not seen since mid-2025, before easing back toward the mid-€30s. The initial strength was driven by low underground gas storage levels, raising concerns over faster-than-expected depletion, cold weather risk, and revisions to Norwegian scheduled maintenance in the coming weeks. The subsequent correction reflected milder near-term forecasts and easing global LNG supply pressures.
TTF gas futures on the ICE market for March 2026 delivery strengthened further during Week 05 (26 January–1 February 2026), following a clear upward trend. The front-month contract averaged €37.97/MWh over the week. It opened at €37.40/MWh on 26 January, eased slightly to €37.40/MWh on Wednesday 28 January (the week’s lowest settlement price), before rising to €38.59/MWh on 29 January (+4.1%), and then jumping sharply on Friday 30 January to €39.29/MWh (+1.8%), marking the highest settlement price for Week 05.
European gas storage dropped to 44% of total capacity on 26 January, according to European energy data platform AGSI. This represented the lowest level for this time of year since 2022, when storage reached 40% amid the scramble to replace Russian supplies, and it remains well below the 10-year average of 58%. If trends persist, storage could fall to 30% or lower by the end of March, according to Reuters analysis. To return stocks to the 83% level seen at the start of last winter, roughly 60 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas will need to be injected. This highlights the substantial procurement needs Europe faces in the coming months.
Pipeline supplies from Norway, North Africa, and Azerbaijan, along with limited domestic production, continue to provide baseline support, yet the challenge of replenishing underground storage ahead of next winter remains considerable.
The European Union currently faces a shortfall of approximately 130 full-volume gas shipments compared to last year, with storage capacity at 490 terawatt-hours as of 29 January, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE). Stockpiles are now at 43% of capacity, the lowest seasonal level since 2022, when the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine impacted supply across the bloc.
Gas stocks declined faster than usual leading up to mid-January, particularly in countries like Germany, where government policy has resulted in lower storage levels compared to previous years, according to a gas analyst at Argus.
