During Week 07, TTF front-month gas futures displayed moderate volatility with an overall mild downward correction, closing slightly below the week’s opening level. European gas prices softened, despite brief midweek recovery attempts, reflecting a market environment characterized by comfortable LNG inflows and relatively balanced fundamentals.
On Monday, February 9, TTF futures stood at €33.496/MWh, marking the highest level of the week. Prices declined by -4.9% on Tuesday, reaching the lowest settlement of Week 07, likely supported by steady LNG arrivals into Europe. From Wednesday to Thursday, futures rebounded modestly as short-term weather forecasts shifted cooler, offering temporary support. However, on Friday, February 13, the contract fell to €32.00/MWh (-1.5% day-on-day), resulting in a -2.97% weekly decline from Monday’s opening level. The weekly average settlement price stood at €32.60/MWh, down -4.00% compared to the previous week, underscoring easing short-term supply concerns amid milder weather projections.
On the geopolitical front, a consortium led by U.S. energy major Chevron signed exclusive lease agreements on February 16 to explore for natural gas offshore southern Greece, significantly expanding U.S. presence in the Eastern Mediterranean. The agreement doubles the Greek maritime acreage available for exploration and aligns with the European Union’s objective to phase out Russian gas supplies while strengthening alternative sources. Under the deal, Chevron will lead exploration in four deep-sea blocks south of the Peloponnese peninsula and Crete, covering approximately 47,000 square kilometers, reinforcing Greece’s ambitions to enhance its role in regional energy diversification.
Greece, which currently has no domestic gas production and relies heavily on imports for power generation and consumption, revived its hydrocarbon exploration strategy following the 2022 energy price shock triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The country also seeks to position itself as a gateway for U.S. liquefied natural gas through the Vertical Gas Corridor, a strategic route designed to transport gas from Greece toward Central Europe and Ukraine. Parliamentary approval is required before seismic research can begin later this year, and the consortium has up to five years to identify commercially recoverable deposits, with any test drilling unlikely before 2030–2032.
In parallel, Exxon Mobil and Helleniq Energy hold licenses for exploration in two additional deep-sea blocks south of Crete and are currently evaluating seismic data before proceeding to potential exploratory drilling. While the European Union continues to expand renewable energy capacity to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, it acknowledges natural gas as a necessary transition fuel to stabilize electricity systems during periods of low wind and solar output.
The renewed momentum behind hydrocarbon exploration and the advancement of the Vertical Corridor are expected to generate significant developments in the near term. Consultations scheduled in Washington on February 24, involving regional stakeholders and the European Commission, aim to address regulatory and commercial obstacles that have so far limited substantial gas flows northward. Reduced transport costs through the Greek system, combined with the planned EU ban on Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027, could create a meaningful supply gap and provide a decisive boost to the corridor’s activation.
Ultimately, the vertical natural gas corridor is emerging as a strategic comparative advantage for Greece, enhancing its attractiveness for upstream investment while strengthening its position within the broader European energy architecture.
