During the first week of March 2026, rising instability in the Middle East pushed TTF gas futures prices sharply higher. European gas prices, anchored to TTF, rallied as the conflict disrupted seaborne LNG supplies. Initial trading saw futures jump more than 30%, highlighting Europe’s ongoing supply vulnerability. Disruptions at Qatari LNG facilities and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz intensified concerns about market tightness. Talks to resolve the US–Iran conflict briefly eased prices on March 4, but later statements from the Russian president threatening supply cuts reignited upward pressure. Low European storage levels, currently below 30% and under 15% in some countries, further contributed to the price surge.
TTF gas futures showed extreme volatility during the week. On 2 March, prices spiked to €44.51/MWh, up 39.3% in a single day, reflecting renewed geopolitical concerns. The rally continued on 3 March, reaching €54.29/MWh (+22%), marking the week’s peak. Prices corrected on 4 March, falling -10% to €48.77/MWh, amid profit-taking and temporary easing of short-term supply fears. Gains resumed on 5 March (€50.73/MWh, +4%) and 6 March (€53.39/MWh, +5%), showing that bullish sentiment persisted due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainty and constrained global gas supply. The one-month forward TTF contract was trading at €49.305/MWh ($16.75/MMBtu). The continued suspension of LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz is creating a global LNG supply disruption, the scale of which depends on the duration and resolution of the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran.
The global LNG shortfall is already prompting demand adjustments. Price-sensitive Asian markets are reducing energy consumption, while some industrial consumers are facing supply curtailments. According to the European Gas Hub, a key determinant of the LNG supply gap will be the rate of EU storage injections during summer 2026. Estimates suggest a 30 mt difference between potential minimum and maximum storage injections. While these extremes are unlikely, they illustrate the potential scale of demand fluctuations influenced by EU policy decisions in an already tight market.
EU policy intervention may be required—either through mandatory storage targets or financial incentives for injections—to ensure adequate storage refilling in the coming months, especially if Middle East LNG disruptions persist. These storage swings will directly affect EU LNG demand and have a major impact on prices in an already volatile market. Policymakers face two main choices:
- Maintain high storage injections early in summer, ensuring supply security and stability later, but at the cost of weeks or months of exceptionally high prices.
- Moderate injections to limit short-term price spikes, risking greater volatility later if the supply disruption extends toward the end of summer.
Decisions must be made under high uncertainty and evolving market conditions, with priorities likely shifting in response to developments in the Middle East conflict.
