European natural gas prices ended the week sharply lower as subdued demand and continued storage injections outweighed concerns over LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
The October TTF contract traded at €71.16/MWh, about 10.5% below the previous week’s €79.51/MWh. The contract had briefly recovered to €74.94/MWh on Sept. 24 as uncertainty over US-Iran contacts and LNG shipments returned before weakening again.
EU gas storage was 70.24% full on Sept. 24, compared with more than 80% a year earlier. Lower inventories have so far failed to generate sustained upward price pressure as demand remains below levels seen during the 2021-2022 energy crisis and Europe has expanded LNG import capacity and diversified supplies.
The latest decline accelerated after reports that Iran could consider reopening the Strait of Hormuz if talks with the United States resumed and restrictions affecting Iranian ports were removed.
The market remains highly exposed to developments around the strait. A prolonged disruption could force European and Asian buyers into stronger competition for alternative LNG cargoes just as heating demand begins to rise.
European authorities are due to reassess storage, supply conditions and winter preparedness in early October, leaving geopolitical developments and LNG availability as the main near-term risks to the softer gas-price trend.
