The evolution of Europe’s gas supply structure continued to shape market dynamics during calendar week 13, with LNG playing an increasingly dominant role in determining pricing and supply security.
In 2025, Norway emerged as the largest supplier of gas to the European Union, accounting for nearly one-third of total imports. The United States followed as a major contributor, reflecting the rapid expansion of LNG export capacity.
Russia’s share of European gas supply has declined sharply, falling from approximately 40% in 2021 to around 13% in 2025 when combining pipeline gas and LNG. This shift represents one of the most significant structural changes in the European energy landscape.
The transition away from Russian pipeline gas has increased Europe’s reliance on LNG imports, which are inherently more flexible but also more volatile. Unlike pipeline gas, which is typically delivered under long-term contracts, LNG is traded on a global market, with prices influenced by supply-demand dynamics across multiple regions.
This shift has introduced new complexities into the European gas market. Prices are now more sensitive to global events, including weather patterns, shipping constraints, and geopolitical developments.
For SEE markets, the implications are particularly significant. As gas remains the marginal fuel for electricity generation in many countries, changes in gas pricing directly impact power markets.
The increased reliance on LNG also raises questions about supply security. While diversification has reduced dependence on a single supplier, it has also introduced new risks related to global competition and logistical constraints.
Looking ahead, the role of LNG is expected to grow further, particularly as new export capacity comes online in the United States and other regions. However, this expansion will need to keep pace with rising global demand to prevent further price volatility.
