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Forecast of consumption growth and possibilities

In the period from 2001 to 2010, the average annual growth rate of total electricity consumption in Serbia is expected to be around 1.2 percent and that of peak capacity is expected to be around 0.8 percent. A comparatively steady growth of electricity consumption in industry of around 4.3 percent annually and a slight decline of low voltage consumption of around 0.2 percent annually will lead to a reduction of uncontrolled consumption. Gross electricity consumption will reach 33260 GWh in 2006, and peak capacity will reach 6363 MW. In 2010, the consumption will be 34,950GWh, and the peak capacity will be 6,626MW.

Long-term agreed electricity deliveries to other systems include 1,065 GWh annually to the Electric Power Industry of Montenegro, in exchange for using HPP Piva (with an expected generation of 760 GWh) in the electric power system of EPS. Energy consumption for pumping water in reversible and pump-storage plants is around 1,100 GWh annually.

Under such conditions and measures, along with investment activities given in the following, which assumes improved state and revitalization, an energy and capacity deficit, namely energy deficit between 3,600 and 1600 GWh annually can be expected up to the year 2006, under average hydrology conditions (in dry years it is considerably higher). It is only after the commissioning of the second block in TPP Kolubara B (or a possible alternative) that EPS can expect to cover the consumption in the Republic of Serbia from its own resources.

Until then, the deficit must be covered through imports of electricity.

The total investment requirements of the Electric Power Industry in the following five years are estimated to be around 2.4 billion US Dollars. A significant part of investments must be provided by EPS from its internal sources. Higher prices and positive business management of EPS is an inevitable requirement for providing any other form of investment. This assumes the following:

  • Donations, in a smaller amount,
  • Loans provided by international institutions and other creditors,
  • Direct foreign investments.

Heat

District Heating in Serbia

  • 52 towns
  • Installed capacity 6.600 MWt (40 % in capital city of Belgrade)

Average age:

  • Boilers 28.1 years
  • Network 20.6 years
  • Substation 20.5 years
  • Average P/A delivery – 5300 GWt
  • 17% households (400,000 apartments)
  • Average consumption P/A 550,000 toe
  • 65% natural gas, 18% heavy fuel oil, 2% electricity, 15% coal
  • Biomass 0%
  • Solid waste 0%
  • No cogeneration – CHP (except Belgrade 3×32 MW)

More detailed table:

District Heating in Serbia: Realized in 2004
Consumption of fuel
Hard Coal 16.22 (1,000 t) 366.67 TJ 0.009 MToe
Brown Coal 125.21 (1,000 t) 1,889.66 TJ 0.045 MToe
Lignite 77.01 (1,000 t) 1,141.53 TJ 0.027 MToe
Natural Gas 483,582.28 (1,000 m3) 16,102,87 TJ 0.385 MToe
Residual Fuel Oil 109.06 (1,000 t) 4,426.07 TJ 0.106 MToe
Fuel Oil 0.44 (1,000 m3) 0.02 TJ 0.000 MToe
Diesel 2.01 (1,000 t) 82.5 TJ 0.002 MToe
Other Naphtha Derivates 0 (1,000 t) 0 TJ 0.000 MToe
Other 2.2 (1,000 t) 17.5 TJ 0.000 MToe
Heat Production 20,919.09 TJ
Gross Heat production 27,334.61 TJ
Transformation Loss 3,181.94 TJ
Transport Loss 3,233.58 TJ
Consumption 20,915.27 TJ – Statistical error 3.82 TJ ( 0.02 %)
Energy Sector Consumption 41.73 TJ
Oil Refineries 0 TJ
Other 41.73 TJ
Common Consumption 20,873.54 TJ
Industry 515.28 TJ
Households 15,263.99 TJ
Public and Commercial Sector 4,756.73 TJ
Other 337.54 TJ
Consumption of other energy sources
Electric Energy 719.79 GWh