Rising tensions in the Middle East are raising concerns about the resilience of Greece’s fuel supply chains, with industry participants warning that prolonged disruptions could gradually erode existing safety buffers.
According to market insiders, current stock levels and refinery output provide a temporary cushion, but this buffer is not unlimited. Estimates suggest that supply stability can be maintained for approximately two months. Beyond that point, continued disruption—particularly to shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz—could significantly complicate fuel procurement and logistics.
Greece operates four major refineries, including facilities owned by Helleniq Energy and Motor Oil Hellas. Combined production of petrol, diesel, aviation fuel, and heating oil exceeds domestic demand, with more than half of output typically directed to export markets. In addition, strategic reserves remain above the minimum requirement, covering around 90 days of consumption.
To maintain operations, refiners have already started diversifying crude supply sources, compensating for reduced inflows from Gulf producers. These adjustments are expected to support full-capacity production in the short term.
However, if geopolitical tensions persist, global oil supply conditions could tighten further, increasing costs and making it more challenging for Greek refineries to secure sufficient crude volumes to sustain current output levels.
