Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 gas-power analysis shows that natural gas prices remained high enough to support wholesale electricity prices across Southeast Europe, despite easing from the sharp peaks seen earlier in the year. The average TTF front-month futures price reached €47.26/MWh in May, up from €44.78/MWh in April. Throughout the month, prices largely traded within a €44–50/MWh range, reaching a peak of €50.25/MWh on 18 May.
Gas prices continued to play a key role in electricity pricing across several Southeast European markets where gas-fired generation remains an important part of the power mix. Italy relied on natural gas for 34.07% of its electricity generation, making it the region’s most gas-dependent major market and reinforcing its position as the highest-priced electricity market. Greece generated 28.11% of its electricity from gas, while Romania’s gas share reached 11.91%, with gas-fired generation increasing 35.23% compared with April. As a result, elevated gas prices continued to support wholesale electricity prices even as renewable generation expanded across the region.
The gas market in May was shaped by a combination of supply risks and improving LNG availability. According to the report, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the need to replenish European gas storage ahead of winter, steady structural demand and weather-related uncertainty all provided upward support for prices. At the same time, strong liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports prevented a more significant price increase. New LNG supplies from producers outside the Gulf region expanded by around 20% year on year, adding nearly 8 bcm of supply and offsetting approximately 90% of the disruption caused by lower Gulf LNG exports.
For electricity traders across Southeast Europe, these conditions created a market in which gas prices remained sufficiently elevated to keep the cost of thermal power generation high, without triggering another energy crisis. This pricing environment helped explain why wholesale electricity prices remained elevated despite stronger renewable output. During May, Italy recorded an average electricity price of €119.35/MWh, Romania reached €109.56/MWh, Hungary averaged €106.51/MWh, while Croatia recorded €103.58/MWh.
The moderation in gas prices during the second half of the month also carried important market implications. Although robust LNG inflows helped ease supply concerns, Europe did not return to a low-cost natural gas environment. According to Electricity.Trade, May demonstrated that natural gas no longer needs to experience dramatic price spikes to shape electricity markets. Instead, relatively stable but elevated gas prices continue to provide a firm price floor for wholesale electricity across Southeast Europe, influencing hedging strategies, power purchase agreement (PPA) pricing, industrial energy procurement and the economics of battery storage and energy arbitrage.
