Hydropower production in Serbia has fallen to historically low levels as prolonged drought and extreme temperatures reduce river inflows, limiting the flexibility normally provided by the country’s Danube assets.
Inflows into the Đerdap hydropower complex have declined to approximately 1,500 cubic metres per second. Đerdap 1 is producing at around 20 per cent of installed capacity, while Đerdap 2 is operating at roughly 30 per cent.
Comparable hydrological conditions were previously recorded in 2003 and 1985, underlining the severity of the current drought. Conditions on the Drina are somewhat better, although inflows remain below normal.
The loss of hydroelectric output has a disproportionate effect on the system because reservoir and run-of-river plants provide more than energy. They supply rapid-response capacity during morning and evening peaks, help balance solar production and reduce the need for high-priced imports.
The rehabilitation of the Bajina Bašta pumped-storage plant has improved operational flexibility. Reservoirs are around 75 per cent full, allowing the facility to pump during lower-priced solar hours and generate during peak demand. Preserving that stored energy will become increasingly important should the drought continue into autumn.
Thermal generation is also affected. Some units at Kostolac have reduced output by approximately one-third because low Danube levels constrain cooling. The TENT complex continues operating with cooling water from the Sava, although the low calorific value of domestic lignite remains a challenge.
Serbia has increased imports of higher-quality coal, while stockpiles stand at approximately 1.82 million tonnes. The government aims to raise reserves above 2 million tonnes before winter.
Electricity consumption has simultaneously climbed to 100–105 GWh per day, approaching the 110–115 GWh recorded during winter peaks. The combination of heat-driven demand, weak hydro production and constrained thermal flexibility increases Serbia’s dependence on imports and exposes the system to expensive evening-market prices.
