Southeast European day-ahead electricity markets diverged sharply for delivery on Sept. 24, with Hungary and Romania posting the strongest price increases as regional net imports rose above 2.3 GW, while Serbia moved lower and Greece remained the cheapest major market.
Hungary’s HUPX base-load price surged €40.30/MWh from the previous session to €239.27/MWh, the highest in the region. Romania followed at €232.50/MWh, up €34.60, while Bulgaria gained €30.00 to €214.98.
Croatia settled at €212.24/MWh, Albania at €210.96, Slovenia at €207.33, Montenegro at €196.29, Serbia at €187.73 and North Macedonia at €187.35.
The move contrasted sharply with Germany, where the day-ahead price fell to €138.12/MWh. That pushed the Hungary-Germany spread to €101.15/MWh, while Hungary traded €63.68/MWh above Greece, highlighting persistent transmission constraints and increasingly fragmented regional pricing.
Falling wind pushes SEE back towards imports
The physical balance tightened despite stronger solar production.
Combined Hungary and SEE electricity consumption was forecast at 29,381 MW, around 305 MW higher than a day earlier, while regional net imports climbed by 806 MW to 2,378 MW. Imports from core Central European markets increased to 2,157 MW, up 464 MW.
The biggest shift came from renewables.
Regional solar output increased by around 1.3 GW, but wind production dropped by more than 2.2 GW, leaving the system more dependent on imports despite strong daytime photovoltaic production.
The loss of wind proved especially important outside the midday solar window, when available renewable generation fell just as electricity demand remained elevated.
Aggregate regional generation remained below consumption, forcing a larger share of demand to be covered through cross-border flows.
Hungary becomes the regional scarcity point
Hungary remained one of the region’s largest net importers, taking an average 1,372 MW, compared with 1,206 MW a day earlier.
Domestic consumption rose to 4,711 MW, while generation eased to around 3,339 MW.
Hungary imported electricity from several surrounding markets while continuing to export toward Croatia and Slovenia, reinforcing its role as both a transit hub and one of the main regional price-setting markets.
The hourly HUPX profile showed that scarcity was concentrated outside the solar window.
Hungary’s minimum hourly price remained high at €151.10/MWh, while the evening maximum reached €403.90/MWh at hour 19. The peak-period average rose to €223.20/MWh, while off-peak power averaged €255.40/MWh.
The contrast with Germany was especially pronounced, with much cheaper German daytime electricity unable to fully translate into lower Hungarian prices because of transmission limitations and the timing of regional demand.
Serbia decouples lower despite remaining a net importer
Serbia was the main exception to the broader upward move.
SEEPEX fell €8.30/MWh to €187.73/MWh, leaving Serbia more than €51/MWh below Hungary.
North Macedonia traded at a similar €187.35/MWh, while Montenegro rose by almost €30 to €196.29/MWh.
Serbia nevertheless remained a net importer. The country continued drawing electricity from Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Bulgaria and North Macedonia while also sending electricity north toward Hungary.
That created an important commercial pattern: Serbia was positioned between lower-priced southern and western supply and a much more expensive Hungarian market.
Serbian hourly prices remained volatile. SEEPEX fell to around €80/MWh during the daytime before rising to roughly €350/MWh in the evening.
The pattern again underlined the growing value difference between midday renewable output and evening electricity.
Bulgaria supplies Romania as eastern corridor tightens
Bulgaria strengthened its position as one of Southeast Europe’s principal electricity exporters.
Net exports increased to around 1,453 MW, with substantial volumes moving toward Romania.
Romania moved deeper into deficit, helping push OPCOM to €232.50/MWh, only around €6.77/MWh below Hungary.
The result reinforced the importance of the Bulgaria-Romania-Hungary trading corridor during periods when Romanian and Hungarian balances tighten simultaneously.
Bulgaria’s combination of nuclear, coal and renewable generation continued to provide significant exportable surplus, but the strong regional demand for that power was reflected in higher Bulgarian prices as well.
Greece remains cheap as solar crushes daytime prices
Greece provided the strongest counterweight to northern SEE prices.
HENEX settled at €175.59/MWh, around €64/MWh below Hungary, even as Greece remained a net electricity exporter.
The hourly structure was more important than the daily average.
Greek electricity prices fell to zero during the midday solar window, while the peak-period average remained substantially below the Hungarian equivalent. Prices then recovered sharply outside solar hours.
The pattern illustrates the increasingly important structural divide emerging across Southeast Europe.
Southern markets with rapidly expanding solar generation can experience very low or zero midday prices, while northern markets remain expensive during morning and evening hours because of limited transmission capacity, lower renewable availability and stronger import demand.
Forward market keeps Hungary premium elevated
Nearby forward trading also reflected the tighter Hungarian balance.
Hungary’s week-40 contract rose to €190/MWh, while week 41 reached €199/MWh. Hungary-Germany forward spreads widened, indicating that traders expect the Central European price separation to persist beyond the immediate day-ahead session.
The Sept. 24 market therefore points less to a uniform Southeast European electricity shortage than to a growing premium for location, transmission capacity and hourly flexibility.
Solar electricity is increasingly abundant during the middle of the day, particularly in southern markets. The commercial value is shifting toward the ability to store, trade or transport that energy into the evening and toward higher-priced deficit markets such as Hungary.
For regional traders, batteries, flexible generation and cross-border capacity are becoming increasingly important as the spread between cheap solar hours and expensive evening demand continues to widen.
