Hydropower production moved sharply in different directions across Southeast Europe in the week to September 13, strengthening electricity balances in Croatia and Serbia while increasing pressure on Bulgaria and Greece.
Regional hydro generation declined 2.1% to 2.81 TWh. The relatively modest aggregate movement concealed substantial differences between national markets.
Croatian hydropower output increased 53.7%, providing critical support as wind and solar production fell 24.3% and thermal generation declined 17.6%. Without the hydro increase, Croatia’s dependence on imports would probably have been materially greater.
The additional output did not prevent Croatia’s wholesale price from rising 8.5% to €176.34/MWh. Lower renewable and thermal production, reduced imports and tight neighbouring markets outweighed the improvement in hydro availability.
Serbia’s hydroelectric generation increased 18.2%. The increase, combined with lower demand, allowed the country to maintain a marginal net export position despite a 5.1% decline in thermal generation. Serbian prices nevertheless surged 11.1% to €155.70/MWh.
Conditions were markedly weaker in Bulgaria. Hydropower production fell 27.4%, the steepest decline among the monitored markets. Bulgaria compensated through a 17.6% increase in thermal generation and slightly higher wind and solar output, enabling net exports to rise 38%.
Greek hydropower declined 11.2% to 58.95 GWh. The reduction occurred alongside weaker renewable and gas-fired production. A steep fall in electricity demand nevertheless allowed Greece to lower its market price and increase exports.
Romanian hydro output rose 2.5%, complementing a strong increase in wind generation and higher thermal production. The broader improvement allowed Romania to reduce net imports by almost half.
Hydropower remains one of the region’s most valuable flexible resources because it can respond to price signals faster than conventional thermal capacity. Its commercial value rises when solar production falls in the evening or wind generation changes unexpectedly. Week 37 showed that hydro availability can stabilise national balances, but cannot fully insulate a market from regional scarcity and interconnector constraints.
Elevated by Virtu.Energy
