Hydropower generation across South-East Europe increased sharply during calendar week 13, rising by 17.35% (+553.5 GWh), but the gains were unevenly distributed, highlighting the fragmented nature of hydrological conditions across the region.
Türkiye was the primary driver of the increase, with output rising by 28.24% (+607.7 GWh). This surge suggests improved reservoir inflows or enhanced dispatch from hydro facilities, contributing significantly to the regional supply balance.
Croatia and Serbia also recorded strong increases, with hydropower generation rising by 244.26% and 153.98%, respectively. While these gains were from relatively low baselines, they nonetheless provided meaningful support to local systems, reducing reliance on thermal generation.
In contrast, several core markets experienced declines. Greece saw hydropower output fall by 38.67%, while Bulgaria declined by 23.48%. Italy and Romania also recorded smaller reductions.
The divergence reflects localized hydrological conditions, including rainfall patterns and reservoir management strategies. Unlike wind and solar, which are influenced by broader weather systems, hydro output can vary significantly between neighbouring countries depending on river basins and storage levels.
From a market perspective, the increase in hydropower provided temporary relief to system tightness, particularly in markets where hydro plays a balancing role. By displacing higher-cost generation, hydro contributed to the modest price declines observed during the week.
However, the variability of hydro output limits its reliability as a long-term stabilizing factor. Traders noted that while hydro can provide short-term flexibility, its contribution is highly dependent on seasonal and climatic conditions.
As the region moves into the spring and early summer period, hydro output is expected to remain an important variable, particularly in the Western Balkans. However, the extent of its impact will depend on rainfall patterns and reservoir management decisions.
