Intraday electricity markets across South-East Europe are undergoing a structural transformation, as the rapid expansion of solar generation begins to reshape price dynamics and trading behaviour.
During calendar week 13, intraday spreads widened significantly across multiple SEE markets, with typical ranges of €20–40/MWh and spikes reaching €50–90/MWh during periods of system imbalance. These movements reflect a growing divergence between forecasted and actual generation, particularly in systems with increasing solar penetration.
The underlying mechanism is straightforward. Solar generation, while predictable on a seasonal basis, remains sensitive to short-term weather conditions, including cloud cover and atmospheric variability. As a result, day-ahead forecasts often deviate from real-time output, creating imbalances that must be corrected through intraday trading.
This dynamic is particularly evident during midday hours, when strong solar output can push prices downward, sometimes significantly below day-ahead levels. Conversely, as solar generation declines in the late afternoon and evening, prices tend to rise sharply, reflecting the need to dispatch higher-cost generation, often gas-fired.
The resulting price profile—characterised by low midday prices and elevated evening peaks—has become increasingly pronounced in SEE markets. While this pattern has long been observed in Western Europe, particularly in Germany and Spain, its emergence in SEE reflects the region’s accelerating energy transition.
However, unlike Western Europe, SEE markets lack the same level of system flexibility. Limited battery storage capacity, constrained interconnections, and a continued reliance on thermal generation mean that imbalances are more likely to translate into price volatility rather than being absorbed by the system.
From a trading perspective, this environment is highly attractive. Intraday markets are becoming the primary arena for value creation, with traders focusing on short-term positioning rather than longer-term directional bets. The ability to accurately forecast renewable output and anticipate system imbalances is becoming a key competitive advantage.
The widening of intraday spreads also has implications for asset valuation. Flexible assets such as battery storage, fast-ramping gas plants, and demand response systems are increasingly able to capture these spreads, enhancing their revenue potential.
At the same time, the increased importance of intraday markets is placing greater emphasis on liquidity and market design. While SEE exchanges have made progress in developing intraday trading platforms, liquidity remains uneven across the region, with larger markets such as Hungary and Romania leading the way.
Looking ahead, the trend toward wider intraday spreads is expected to continue. As solar capacity expands further and wind generation remains variable, the gap between forecasted and actual supply is likely to increase, reinforcing the importance of intraday trading.
