Electricity.Trade analysis of January 2026 electricity trading confirms a clear re-emergence of price divergence across South-East Europe, reversing the convergence trend observed in parts of late 2025. Average monthly prices ranged from €150.51/MWh in Romania and €150.41/MWh in Hungary to €108.67/MWh in Greece and €57.42/MWh in Türkiye, underlining the persistence of structurally segmented pricing despite physical interconnection.
Electricity.Trade notes that this divergence was not demand-led. Regional consumption increased unevenly, with Serbia reporting +33.43% month-on-month growth, Croatia +22.42%, and Bulgaria +17.51%, while Hungary and Romania recorded more modest changes. Price behavior instead tracked marginal supply conditions, fuel exposure, and import elasticity.
Romania and Hungary jointly defined the upper price envelope. Both markets experienced declining hydro availability, increased gas-linked marginal pricing, and heightened reliance on imports during peak hours. Romania’s average January price of €150.51/MWh coincided with hydro generation falling -16.04%, while Hungary’s €150.41/MWh reflected a system with 34.03% net imports despite strong nuclear output.
In contrast, Greece defied regional price escalation. Electricity.Trade attributes Greece’s lower average price (€108.67/MWh) primarily to a +155.37% increase in hydro generation, which temporarily displaced gas at the margin and reduced exposure to TTF volatility. Serbia displayed similar insulation, with hydro generation rising +186.06%, stabilizing prices despite strong demand growth.
Electricity.Trade emphasizes that January’s divergence highlights a core trading reality: SEE power markets do not converge uniformly. Instead, convergence collapses under stress, revealing a hierarchy in which gas- and import-dependent systems reprice sharply, while hydro-rich systems temporarily decouple.
For traders, January reinforced the need to model SEE as a multi-node risk environment, not a single convergence block.
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