Electricity.Trade analysis of Montenegro’s regulatory developments indicates that the country’s electricity market is transitioning from isolation toward gradual convergence with regional hubs. The completion of the Electricity Integration Package in February 2026 positions Montenegro for eventual participation in Single Day-Ahead Coupling (SDAC) and Single Intraday Coupling (SIDC), pending formal verification.
Historically, BELEN has functioned as a peripheral market with limited liquidity and pronounced price discounts. On 24 February, BELEN’s base price of 40.00 EUR/MWh stood nearly 75 EUR/MWh below Hungary. Electricity.Trade notes that such spreads are incompatible with a coupled environment and are already attracting speculative positioning focused on future convergence.
Market coupling is expected to lift liquidity by exposing BELEN to a broader participant base and implicit capacity allocation. Increased order book depth reduces execution risk and encourages tighter bidding behavior. Electricity.Trade analysis suggests that average prices are likely to rise as risk premiums compress, even as extreme volatility moderates.
Intraday coupling is expected to be equally transformative. Continuous cross-border trading will allow market participants to manage forecast errors closer to real time, reducing imbalance exposure and supporting more aggressive day-ahead strategies.
However, Electricity.Trade cautions that coupling will also import volatility. Montenegro will become more sensitive to price shocks originating in Italy and Hungary, particularly during regional stress events. The transition therefore represents a repricing rather than a stabilization.
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