Electricity.Trade’s May 2026 market analysis highlights a significant structural shift in Southeast Europe’s electricity market: strong growth in renewable energy is no longer sufficient on its own to push wholesale electricity prices lower. Although wind and solar generation increased across most of the region, wholesale prices continued to rise, challenging the long-held assumption that expanding renewable capacity will automatically reduce monthly market prices.
Renewable generation posted solid gains in nearly every analysed market. Bulgaria recorded the largest month-on-month increase at 34.19%, followed by Romania with 26.57%, Greece at 15.88%, Hungary at 9.56%, Italy at 9.22%, Serbia at 2.90%, and Croatia at 0.13%. Türkiye was the only market where renewable output declined, falling 6.70%. Despite this overall expansion in renewable generation, electricity prices moved higher across most interconnected Southeast European markets.
Romania’s average day-ahead electricity price climbed 14.66% to €109.56/MWh, while Croatia recorded a 14.55% increase to €103.58/MWh. Bulgaria’s average price rose 11.08% to €101.07/MWh, Hungary increased 10.31% to €106.51/MWh, and Serbia advanced 5.59% to €96.63/MWh. Greece remained the lowest-priced interconnected European market in the region, although its average still edged up to €88.98/MWh. Italy continued to record the highest average electricity price at €119.35/MWh, remaining broadly stable compared with April but significantly above the level seen a year earlier.
The increase in prices reflects a combination of factors extending beyond renewable generation. While higher wind and solar output can depress prices during periods of strong production, particularly around midday, dispatchable generation remains essential during evening demand peaks and periods of weaker renewable output. In May, hydroelectric generation delivered mixed results, natural gas prices remained sufficiently elevated to continue setting marginal electricity prices, and several markets maintained heavy reliance on imported electricity. Croatia sourced 43.78% of its electricity from net imports, Hungary nearly 29.97%, while imports accounted for 17.97% of Italy’s electricity supply.
According to Electricity.Trade, May’s market performance demonstrates that renewable capacity alone is no longer the decisive factor shaping monthly electricity prices. The effectiveness of renewable energy increasingly depends on the availability of system flexibility, including battery storage, hydroelectric resources, demand response, stronger cross-border interconnections and commercial power purchase agreements (PPAs). As Southeast Europe’s electricity market continues to evolve, these balancing mechanisms are expected to play a much greater role in transforming growing renewable generation into sustained reductions in wholesale electricity prices.
