Southeast Europe entered the early summer electricity season with a market development that is becoming increasingly significant for traders, utilities, and industrial consumers. During Week 24, regional electricity demand climbed to 15.85 TWh, an increase of 4.6% compared to the previous week. Despite the higher consumption levels, most day-ahead electricity markets across the region recorded lower average prices, highlighting a growing disconnect between demand growth and price movements.
The decline in prices was not driven by weaker consumption. Electricity demand increased substantially in several major markets, with Italy adding 319.8 GWh, Türkiye contributing an additional 246.7 GWh, and Greece increasing demand by 55.0 GWh, pushing its weekly consumption above 1.01 TWh. Instead, the market was influenced by a stronger expansion of renewable energy generation, which outpaced the rise in electricity demand.
Combined wind and solar generation across Southeast Europe reached 3.64 TWh, marking a weekly increase of 16.6%. Wind production showed the strongest growth, rising 28.1% to 1.40 TWh, while solar generation increased 10.4% to 2.23 TWh. The growing availability of low-marginal-cost renewable electricity placed downward pressure on wholesale power prices throughout much of the region.
Serbia experienced the most significant price correction, with its average weekly electricity price falling 21.5% to €78.22/MWh. Similar declines were recorded in neighboring markets, including Bulgaria, Croatia, Romania, and Hungary. Italy also saw prices decrease, although it remained the region’s most expensive market at €123.17/MWh. Greece stood out as the only major exception, posting a modest price increase to €91.53/MWh.
While renewable generation helped suppress prices, the overall system balance remains far from comfortable. Hydropower production declined by 7.5%, reducing a key source of flexible generation by more than 300 GWh. To compensate for this shortfall, thermal power plants increased output by 8.7%. Coal and lignite generation recorded particularly strong growth, rising 24.4%, while gas-fired generation edged slightly lower.
The latest market data suggest that the region’s summer electricity outlook is more complex than a simple story of renewable-driven price declines. Solar and wind generation are increasingly capable of limiting weekly average prices, but reduced hydropower availability and persistent evening demand peaks continue to keep thermal generation essential for system stability. As a result, market participants are likely to focus less on average weekly prices and more on hourly price fluctuations, flexibility opportunities, and cross-market spreads. For traders, volatility is becoming a more important source of value, while industrial buyers must pay closer attention to intraday market dynamics rather than relying solely on broad demand trends.
