Romania’s day-ahead electricity price fell sharply on September 15 after the previous day’s surge, although the market remained among the most expensive in Southeast Europe.
The average Romanian day-ahead price declined from approximately €238/MWh on September 14 to €189.58/MWh on September 15, a reduction of around 20% in 24 hours. The market nevertheless remained slightly above Bulgaria and Greece and close to the price recorded in Hungary.
The decline was driven primarily by improved wind-generation forecasts in northern and western Europe. Higher wind output reduced Germany’s import requirement, easing pressure on interconnectors and leaving more electricity available for neighbouring markets.
Romania had effectively transmitted part of the Central European supply shock on September 14. Electricity moving from lower-priced southern markets towards Hungary and Central Europe placed upward pressure on Romanian prices, demonstrating the speed with which scarcity is distributed across Europe’s coupled markets.
Domestic conditions amplified the movement. The unavailability of the 1,400 MW Cernavodă nuclear plant removed Romania’s largest source of continuous low-carbon generation. Weak hydrology, limited storage and insufficient volumes of flexible low-cost capacity left the system more dependent on imports and expensive thermal generation during peak hours.
The price decline on September 15 did not reflect a structural improvement in Romania’s supply position. No new dispatchable plant or material storage capacity entered operation between the two trading sessions. Instead, a change in European wind conditions reduced the number of hours in which expensive gas-fired generation was required to set the marginal price.
That volatility matters for industrial consumers and suppliers with unhedged positions. A market moving by almost €50/MWh in one day creates substantial cash-flow and collateral requirements, even when the average monthly supply position appears manageable.
Romania has expanded solar and wind capacity rapidly, but the market response illustrates the difference between installed capacity and dependable output. Batteries can shift solar production across several hours, while hydropower, demand response, interconnection upgrades and flexible generation are needed to manage longer periods of low renewable availability. Until those resources expand, Romania will remain highly sensitive to weather and generation outages far beyond its borders.
