Romania produced significantly more variable renewable electricity in Week 34 than in Week 30, yet remained exposed to some of the highest wholesale prices in Southeast Europe as its hydro balance weakened and thermal generation rose sharply.
Romanian variable renewable production increased 37.8% compared with Week 30, one of the strongest gains among the monitored markets. On its own, that might suggest softer wholesale pricing.
The rest of the generation stack moved very differently. Hydropower output fell 22.66%, while thermal generation increased 45.86%. Net electricity imports declined 55.63%, indicating that the domestic system was carrying a larger share of its own requirement.
The Romanian Week 34 day-ahead average reached €152.54/MWh, up 6.6% from Week 33. The tightening continued after the reporting week. On 26 August, Romania’s day-ahead price reached €186.50/MWh, the highest figure cited among the SEE markets for that day.
The lesson is that total renewable volume is not enough to explain market prices. Wind and solar production can increase while a decline in flexible hydro generation makes the system more dependent on expensive thermal units during particular hours.
Romania’s case also reinforces the importance of technology mix. A megawatt-hour of solar electricity produced during an already well-supplied midday period does not provide the same system value as hydro generation available during the evening peak.
A similar distinction applies to cross-border trade. Romania reduced net imports substantially, which can be positive from a supply-security perspective, but also means more domestic higher-cost production may be required when neighbouring supplies are not economically or physically available.
Week 34 therefore provides an important warning against interpreting renewable-generation growth as an automatic indicator of lower wholesale prices. Renewable volume matters, but timing, flexibility, hydro availability and the cost of the marginal thermal unit matter just as much.
