Romania is pursuing two very different nuclear energy investment pathways, each with a distinct risk profile, financing structure and level of project maturity. At the Cernavoda Nuclear Power Plant, state-owned Nuclearelectrica is preparing to secure long-term buyers for up to 400 MW of baseload electricity through contracts covering the period from 2027 to 2046, with revenues intended to support the refurbishment of Unit 1. At the same time, the proposed Doicesti Small Modular Reactor (SMR) project remains under scrutiny due to concerns over governance, shareholder responsibilities, cost distribution and the overall commercial structure.
The planned Cernavoda electricity auction will be divided into five supply blocks, consisting of three 100 MW contracts and two 50 MW contracts, representing approximately 3.5 TWh of annual electricity generation. At the minimum auction price, the total value of the contracts could reach around EUR 5.6 billion over their lifetime, excluding inflation adjustments. The pricing model combines an indexed floor price with a maximum price cap, providing Nuclearelectrica with predictable revenues while limiting exposure for electricity buyers during periods of extreme market volatility. The refurbishment programme is already supported by an EUR 800 million loan from the European Investment Bank (EIB), forming a key part of the overall financing strategy.
From an investor perspective, the Cernavoda refurbishment represents a proven and financeable infrastructure model. The project benefits from an operating nuclear facility, a clearly defined refurbishment programme and long-term electricity contracts based on recognised EFET market standards. While risks remain, including construction delays, cost inflation, counterparty credit exposure and the need to replace contracted electricity during possible outages, these challenges can be assessed and managed through contractual mechanisms and operational data from an established nuclear asset.
The Doicesti SMR development, however, represents a significantly different investment proposition. Unlike the refurbishment of an existing nuclear unit, the project involves the deployment of a first-of-a-kind technology and therefore carries greater development and execution uncertainty. A government audit raised concerns regarding the project location, land acquisition process and the 50:50 ownership structure between Nuclearelectrica and Nova Power & Gas. According to the findings, the state-owned utility has carried a significant share of the financial exposure while maintaining equal ownership rights with its private partner. Nuclearelectrica has stated that it invested approximately USD 243 million in project development, while the audit identified delays of around 20 months and a potential cost increase of approximately USD 3.8 billion.
The dispute surrounding more than EUR 20 million in site preparation costs and the valuation of land contributed by the private shareholder highlights the importance of governance during the early stages of complex infrastructure projects. Before construction begins on a first-of-a-kind nuclear facility, substantial value is created through feasibility studies, engineering work, licensing procedures, land preparation and technology agreements. Strong shareholder frameworks must therefore establish clear rules for financing obligations, asset valuation, ownership adjustments and the allocation of risks related to delays, additional costs or potential project cancellation.
Recent climatic conditions have also demonstrated that nuclear generation requires greater attention to operational resilience. Cernavoda Unit 1 was temporarily placed into controlled shutdown after exceptionally low Danube River levels affected cooling conditions. Unit 2 continued operating under enhanced monitoring, but authorities prepared contingency measures involving additional gas-fired generation, increased renewable output, battery storage deployment and electricity imports in case both reactors became unavailable. The event underlined the need for future nuclear planning to incorporate cooling-water security and evaluate the impact of prolonged drought conditions across interconnected regional power systems.
Romania’s two nuclear strategies should therefore be assessed as separate investment cases rather than competing versions of the same programme. The Cernavoda Unit 1 refurbishment is focused on extending the life of an existing low-carbon generation asset supported by long-term revenue visibility and proven operational performance. The Doicesti SMR project, by contrast, remains a technology development initiative whose governance structure, financing model and commercial viability must be fully validated before major additional capital commitments are made. Maintaining this distinction will be critical for protecting investor confidence and ensuring the credibility of Romania’s long-term nuclear energy expansion strategy.
