Power prices across Southeast Europe and Hungary moved sharply higher for delivery on 17 March, as reduced import flows and falling wind generation tightened regional supply-demand balances, while demand rebounded at the start of the week
Day-ahead baseload prices rose across all major exchanges, with Hungary’s HUPX clearing at €137.27/MWh (+€26.5 day-on-day), while Romania (OPCOM) reached €126.24/MWh (+€22.5) and Bulgaria (IBEX) €121.31/MWh (+€20.9). In the western Balkans, Croatia (CROPEX) climbed to €130.45/MWh (+€30.5) and Slovenia (BSP) to €131.29/MWh (+€31.6), while Serbia (SEEPEX) traded at €109.53/MWh (+€13.8)
The strongest move was recorded in Albania, where ALPEX surged to €175.43/MWh (+€96), reflecting ongoing hydro-driven volatility and tighter regional balancing conditions.
The price rally was supported by a notable increase in electricity demand, with regional consumption rising to 34,462 MW (+2,380 MW day-on-day) as working-week activity resumed. Temperatures remained relatively mild at around 8–9°C, but demand recovery was sufficient to tighten the system amid constrained supply
At the same time, import availability weakened. Net imports into the SEE-Hungary region stood at -1,029 MW, marking a reduction compared to the previous day, while flows from core markets (Austria and Slovakia) into the region dropped by 658 MW. The decline in cross-border inflows reduced system flexibility and forced greater reliance on domestic generation
Generation increased modestly to 32,385 MW (+740 MW), led by a rebound in hydro output (+871 MW) and higher thermal generation, including coal and gas. However, this was offset by a sharp fall in wind production, which dropped by 558 MW day-on-day, limiting renewable contribution during key hours. Solar output also edged lower, reflecting seasonal and intraday variability
The drop in wind generation was a key bullish driver, particularly during evening peak hours when solar output declines. Intraday price curves across HUPX, BSP and OPCOM showed pronounced evening peaks, with hourly prices in several markets exceeding €200/MWh, indicating tightening margins during high-demand periods.
On the interconnection side, the Hungary–Germany spread narrowed to around €11/MWh, down significantly on the day, reducing arbitrage incentives for imports from Western Europe. This partial convergence with core European markets coincided with reduced physical flows into the region, reinforcing local price pressure
Fuel markets provided limited relief. Austrian gas hub prices rose to €52.12/MWh (+€1.5), while carbon prices remained broadly stable, keeping marginal generation costs elevated for gas- and coal-fired plants.
Across the region, cross-border flow patterns showed continued reliance on intra-SEE balancing, with stronger flows from Romania and Bulgaria towards neighbouring markets, while traditional west-to-east imports weakened. This shift underscores ongoing structural constraints in interconnection capacity and market coupling.
Looking ahead, market participants expect prices to remain firm in the near term, with system balance highly sensitive to renewable output and cross-border flows. Further weakness in wind generation or additional import constraints could sustain upward pressure, particularly during peak hours, while stronger solar output later in the week may offer some downside relief.
Overall, the current market structure reflects a tightening regional system, where modest changes in generation or imports continue to trigger outsized price reactions across Southeast European power markets.
