Southeast Europe enters autumn with more diversified gas infrastructure than at any point since the European energy crisis, but prices are likely to remain elevated as low EU storage and constrained global LNG supply outweigh improved physical security.
European hub gas was trading around €70-73/MWh in early September, with October contracts near similar levels.
EU storage is only about two-thirds full, substantially below normal early-September levels, increasing sensitivity to weather and LNG availability.
For Southeast Europe, the main improvement is infrastructure.
Greece has expanded its role as an LNG gateway through Revythoussa and Alexandroupolis, while the Vertical Gas Corridor is being extended toward Serbia and North Macedonia.
Bulgaria retains access to lower-cost Azerbaijani volumes and entered September with a regulated gas price of €41.60/MWh, materially below European hubs.
Romania has the region’s strongest indigenous gas position and should become still less import-dependent as Black Sea production increases over coming years.
Hungary and Serbia retain access to Russian gas through the southern route while progressively adding alternative connections.
Those supply options lower the risk of physical shortages.
They do not eliminate price exposure.
If international LNG remains constrained, Greece and other markets buying hub-linked gas will continue paying near European benchmark prices.
September should benefit from falling cooling demand, but continued storage injections will support demand.
October introduces the first heating load and could keep TTF and CEGH firm even as power-sector gas consumption declines from summer highs.
The base case is therefore for adequate physical gas but expensive marginal supply, with upside risk if Middle East disruptions intensify or Europe enters winter with inventories below target.
