Southeast European peak power prices are likely to remain supported in the near term unless wind and hydropower output recover, gas prices decline or import pressure eases in the region’s premium markets.
The week-ahead outlook remains constructive for SEE peak prices following the tightening pattern observed in Week 27. Electricity demand increased, renewable and hydropower generation weakened, thermal output rose and regional net imports climbed. Together, these factors point to continued support for peak and evening-hour prices, particularly in Romania, Hungary, Serbia and Croatia.
Romania and Hungary remain the region’s premium price anchors, after recording average Week 27 prices of EUR 164.31/MWh and EUR 162.04/MWh, respectively. Croatia averaged EUR 142.57/MWh, while Serbia saw prices rise 26.3% to EUR 139.93/MWh. These markets should remain the primary focus for week-ahead price risk.
The first key forecast trigger is electricity demand. SEE consumption increased 2.1% to 18.80 TWh, driven primarily by higher demand in Türkiye, Greece and Romania. If temperatures remain elevated and cooling demand stays strong, peak prices should remain supported. A meaningful easing in temperatures, however, could reduce load pressure and weaken the bullish outlook.
The second trigger is renewable generation. Variable renewable output declined 3.3% in Week 27, with wind generation falling 5.1% and solar output decreasing 1.8%. A recovery in wind generation would represent the clearest bearish signal for prices, particularly if stronger output coincides with periods of high demand or improves supply in markets linked to Romania, Hungary and Serbia.
Hydropower is the third key indicator. Regional hydro generation declined 3.4%, reducing the availability of flexible, low-cost electricity. A recovery in hydropower output in Bulgaria, Romania, Serbia or Türkiye would help ease system pressure, while continued weakness would increase reliance on thermal generation and provide further support for peak prices.
The fourth trigger is natural gas. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh in Week 27, up 5.5% week on week, and moved above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the period. If gas prices remain firm, gas-fired generation costs will continue to support peak power prices. A material decline in TTF, however, would weaken the fuel-cost component of the bullish power-market case.
Cross-border flows represent the fifth major trigger. SEE net imports rose 28.2% to 1.25 TWh, with Hungary, Romania and Serbia all increasing their import requirements. Continued growth in imports into these premium markets would help support regional spreads, while stronger export balances in Greece, Bulgaria or Türkiye could reduce pressure on the region’s supply-demand balance.
Under the bullish scenario, hot weather persists, wind generation remains weak, hydropower does not recover, TTF prices hold above the mid-EUR 40s/MWh range and Hungary, Romania and Serbia continue to rely heavily on imports. In this environment, SEE evening peak prices would remain strongly supported, with the Romania-Hungary-Serbia premium potentially widening further.
Under the base-case scenario, demand remains firm, renewable generation partially recovers, gas prices stay elevated and cross-border imports stabilize. Peak prices would remain supported, but regional spreads would be less likely to widen aggressively.
The bearish scenario would involve cooler weather, a strong recovery in wind generation, improved hydropower output, softer TTF prices and the normalization of thermal availability in Serbia. Under these conditions, SEE power prices would ease and peak-to-baseload spreads would narrow.
Forecast view: The near-term outlook remains supportive for SEE peak power prices, but the bullish case is conditional. Wind generation, hydropower output, TTF prices and cross-border import flows will be the key indicators determining whether the Week 27 tightening trend extends into the coming week or begins to reverse.
