April showed a clear regional softening in SEE electricity markets. Average day-ahead prices fell across almost all observed markets as milder weather, lower demand, and stronger solar/renewable output reduced pressure on thermal generation and cross-border imports. Italy remained the premium market at €119.47/MWh, while Türkiye collapsed to €18.45/MWh. Serbia averaged €91.51/MWh, down 3.29% month-on-month but still 5.67% higher year-on-year.
The core regional signal was demand destruction after winter. Serbia posted the sharpest monthly demand fall at 31.78%, followed by Romania 16.94%, Bulgaria 14.09%, Italy 13.33%, Greece 10.93%, Türkiye 7.01% and Hungary 6.64%. This lowered marginal gas and coal dispatch needs and allowed renewables to set a stronger daytime price signal.
Price convergence became more visible. Greece, Bulgaria, Serbia and Croatia clustered around €88–91/MWh, while Romania and Hungary stayed slightly higher at €95–97/MWh. Italy’s €119.47/MWh premium reflects its continued gas dependence and structural import requirement, with net imports of 4,433.73 GWh in April.
Serbia’s market position improved from a trading perspective. Despite coal/lignite still dominating the mix at 52.49%, hydro provided a strong 39.52% share, helping Serbia become a net exporter with 155.16 GWh of net exports. SEEPEX traded 484.04 GWh, up 5.87% month-on-month, suggesting better exchange liquidity even as prices softened.
Hydro remained the main balancing variable. Greece suffered a 57.38% hydro fall, Croatia dropped 21.82%, while Italy rose 21.75%, Türkiye 9.96%, Serbia 7.22% and Romania 7.14%. This uneven hydro picture explains why price declines were not uniform despite broad demand weakness.
Gas markets also turned bearish but remained politically sensitive. TTF moved from above €48/MWh early in April to a low of €38.78/MWh on 17 April, before stabilising in the mid-€40/MWh range. Lower gas demand, better LNG availability and high solar generation weighed on prices, but Middle East risk and LNG-flow uncertainty prevented a deeper correction.
The main April trend is that SEE moved from winter scarcity pricing toward spring surplus sensitivity. For producers, this means rising exposure to daytime solar cannibalisation, negative or very low hourly prices, and stronger need for hedging, storage, flexible hydro, and cross-border optimisation. For traders, April created wider intraday and cross-border opportunities, especially around Italy’s premium, Hungary’s import role, and Serbia’s temporary export strength.
