The South-East European power market opened the new trading week with a sharp rebound in day-ahead prices, reversing the weekend softness as demand recovered and renewable output weakened. The move was broad-based across the region but most pronounced in the southern and eastern Balkan markets, where structural tightness continues to dominate short-term price formation.
Day-ahead baseload prices climbed to 71.24 €/MWh in Serbia, making SEEPEX the most expensive market in the region, followed closely by Greece at 70.35 €/MWh and Albania at 70.29 €/MWh. Montenegro cleared at 64.99 €/MWh, while Bulgaria and Romania moved to 62.08 €/MWh and 60.35 €/MWh respectively. By contrast, the Central European anchor remained significantly softer, with Hungary at 47.25 €/MWh, Croatia at 36.04 €/MWh, and Slovenia at just 29.16 €/MWh, highlighting a persistent north–south divergence in pricing dynamics.
The magnitude of the rebound was equally striking. Greece surged by +39.2% day on day, Bulgaria by +30.9%, Serbia by +29.5%, and Romania by +29.2%, confirming that the tightening was not localized but systemic across the Balkan basin. Hungary also moved higher, but its increase of +13.0% was more moderate, reinforcing its role as the region’s relative price floor.
At the core of the price move was a clear deterioration in the regional power balance. Total consumption rose to 28,701 MW, an increase of 1,377 MW compared with the previous day, while total generation dropped sharply to 25,292 MW, down 2,694 MW. This widening deficit forced the system to increase reliance on imports, with total net imports rising to 2,592 MW, up 561 MW day on day, and core inflows from Austria and Slovakia reaching 3,210 MW, up 554 MW.
The tightening was primarily driven by a simultaneous decline across multiple generation sources. Wind output fell by 855 MW, solar by 430 MW, and hydro by 354 MW, while even thermal generation weakened, with coal down 253 MW and gas down 178 MW. This broad-based drop in supply, combined with recovering demand, created the conditions for a rapid repricing across day-ahead markets.
Renewables played a particularly decisive role. Forecast solar output declined to 1,842 MW, while wind was reduced to 3,502 MW, removing a substantial volume of low-cost generation from the system. In a region where price formation remains highly sensitive to marginal supply shifts, especially during shoulder-season transitions, this reduction immediately translated into higher clearing prices.
Serbia’s position at the top of the regional price curve is especially notable. At 71.24 €/MWh, SEEPEX traded nearly 24 €/MWh above Hungary, underscoring the structural tightness of the Serbian and broader Balkan south market. Cross-border flow data confirms that Serbia remains deeply integrated into regional balancing, importing from Hungary and Romania while simultaneously exporting toward neighboring systems such as Kosovo. In periods of tightening supply, this positioning tends to amplify price volatility rather than dampen it.
The spread dynamics further reinforce the regional segmentation. The Hungary–Germany spread narrowed to 44.21 €/MWh, down 6 €/MWh day on day, indicating some convergence with Western European pricing. However, the Hungary–Greece spread widened significantly to -23.10 €/MWh, reflecting the much tighter conditions in the southern Balkans. This divergence continues to define trading opportunities across the region, with Hungary acting as a relatively liquid and lower-priced hub, while Greece and Serbia represent structurally tighter markets with higher marginal pricing.
Forward markets showed a more measured response. Hungarian baseload forwards rose modestly, with Week 15 at 99.50 €/MWh, Week 16 at 114.50 €/MWh, May-26 at 97.50 €/MWh, and Calendar 2026 at 113.50 €/MWh. Regional spreads versus Hungary remained elevated, particularly in the prompt weeks, where they stood at 23.00 €/MWh for Week 15 and 17.50 €/MWh for Week 16, before easing to 14.00 €/MWh for May and widening again to 21.00 €/MWh on the calendar strip.
Fuel markets, however, did not provide the primary impulse for the day-ahead move. Austrian gas (CEGH) held steady at 52.06 €/MWh, Greek gas at 51 €/MWh, and carbon (EUA Dec-26) at 71.06 €/t, all broadly unchanged. Coal forwards edged slightly higher to 119 €/t for May-26 and 124.5 €/t for Q3-26, but the lack of significant movement in fuels suggests that the price spike was driven predominantly by short-term system fundamentals rather than structural repricing across the energy complex.
Intraday price profiles across key exchanges reinforce the volatility backdrop. Hungarian prices continued to exhibit negative pricing during off-peak hours, with minimum values reaching -171.6 €/MWh during the week, while peak prices remained elevated above 180 €/MWh, highlighting the growing intraday spread driven by renewable intermittency. Similar patterns were visible across Romania, Greece and Slovenia, where price swings between negative and high positive levels persist as a defining feature of the regional market structure.
The broader macro backdrop remains supportive of volatility. European gas prices have recently surged above 600 $/1,000 m³ for the first time in over two years, driven by geopolitical tensions and LNG supply risks. At the same time, grid constraints across Europe are increasingly limiting the integration of new renewable capacity, with more than 120 GW of planned projects facing connection challenges. These structural pressures continue to feed into SEE markets, where network limitations and cross-border congestion play an outsized role in price formation.
In this context, the current price rebound should not be interpreted as a sustained bullish shift but rather as a reflection of ongoing structural fragility in the regional power balance. The SEE market remains highly dependent on imports and vulnerable to fluctuations in renewable output, particularly during transitional weather periods.
Short-term trading signals remain clear. The premium observed in Serbia, Greece and Albaniaindicates continued tightness in the southern Balkan system, while Hungary and Slovenia retain their role as relative soft markets. As long as renewable output remains volatile and import dependency persists at elevated levels, these regional spreads are likely to remain wide, offering continued opportunities for cross-border arbitrage and congestion-based strategies.
The key variable for the coming sessions will be the evolution of wind and solar generation. Any recovery in renewable output would likely compress spreads and ease prices, particularly in the southern markets. Conversely, continued weakness in renewables, combined with stable or rising demand, would sustain upward pressure and keep SEE markets structurally tighter than their Central European counterparts.
