The SEE electricity market is entering the summer season with a growing divide between countries that still retain export flexibility and those increasingly exposed to higher demand, import dependence, and evening-hour scarcity. During Week 25, it became clear that the region is no longer moving as a single market block. While Italy and Hungary traded at the upper end of the regional price curve, Greece, Bulgaria, and Serbia remained within the lower SEE pricing cluster, although some of these markets also experienced upward price pressure.
The clearest signal came from Italy, which continued to serve as the regional premium market. Weekly day-ahead prices averaged approximately €127.69/MWh, significantly above levels recorded across most Balkan and Central European-connected SEE markets. This premium was driven by more than fuel costs alone. Higher electricity demand, reduced hydro generation, and weaker wind output forced the Italian system to rely more heavily on gas-fired generation and imports. As a result, Italy’s elevated prices continued to influence neighboring markets through cross-border trading flows, even where domestic fundamentals appeared less restrictive.
Hungary also moved into a higher pricing range, with HUPX averaging around €109.16/MWh. The importance of Hungary lies in its position as a key link between SEE and Central Europe. Its market is shaped not only by domestic consumption and import requirements but also by regional market coupling, scarcity periods, and cross-border electricity flows. Even when Hungary lowers its net import exposure, prices can remain elevated if surrounding Central European markets experience tighter supply conditions and stronger evening demand.
This development highlights a growing complexity within the SEE market. Lower gas prices no longer guarantee lower electricity prices. Although TTF gas prices softened during the week, power prices increased in Croatia, Hungary, Serbia, Romania, and Italy. This indicates that electricity markets were being driven more by physical supply constraints, hydro availability, renewable generation levels, and peak-hour balancing requirements than by fuel price movements alone.
Croatia provided another strong example of this trend. Rising electricity demand, weaker wind generation, and greater reliance on imports pushed CROPEX prices above €100/MWh. Romania also recorded higher prices despite lower demand, demonstrating that reduced hydro availability and regional market convergence can outweigh domestic consumption trends when determining wholesale power prices.
In contrast, Greece and Bulgaria illustrated how stronger renewable output can temporarily ease market pressure. Greece expanded its export position, while Bulgaria significantly increased exports, supported by improved solar generation. Although these markets remained exposed to volatility, they showed that renewable availability can still provide short-term price relief even during periods of warmer weather and higher seasonal demand.
From a trading perspective, the SEE market is becoming increasingly spread-driven. Opportunities are no longer defined solely by the overall direction of prices but by the widening gaps between individual markets. Key spreads are emerging between Italy and the Balkans, Hungary and Serbia, Bulgaria and Romania, as well as between Türkiye and the broader EU-linked SEE region. For electricity buyers, this environment underscores the importance of hedging strategies focused on peak-hour exposure. For generators, it highlights that future revenues will increasingly depend on when electricity is produced, not simply on the total volume generated.
