Southeast European power markets tightened in Week 27, while northwest Europe moved in the opposite direction, creating a clear regional split. The divergence was driven by higher electricity demand, weaker wind, solar and hydropower output, increased thermal generation and stronger reliance on cross-border imports across several SEE markets.
Electricity demand in SEE rose 2.1% week on week to 18.80 TWh, up from 18.41 TWh. Türkiye recorded the largest absolute increase, with demand rising by 448 GWh to 7.73 TWh. Greece saw an 8.0% increase, while Romania and Croatia recorded gains of 7.3% and 2.9%, respectively, adding further pressure to the regional power balance.
The increase in demand coincided with a decline in variable renewable generation. Regional wind and solar output fell 3.3% to 4.15 TWh, with wind generation decreasing by 5.1% and solar output by 1.8%. Türkiye experienced the sharpest decline, with variable renewable generation falling 22.0%, while Greece also recorded a notable decrease as weaker wind production outweighed higher solar output.
Hydropower generation also weakened across the region. SEE hydro output declined 3.4%, falling from 3.53 TWh to 3.41 TWh. The largest reductions were recorded in Bulgaria, while output also declined in Italy, Romania, Hungary and Serbia. Although Croatia and Greece registered increases in hydropower production, these gains were insufficient to offset the broader regional decline.
The tightening supply-demand balance was partly offset by a significant increase in thermal generation. SEE thermal output rose 6.5%, from 6.44 TWh to 6.86 TWh. Lignite and coal generation increased by 11.6%, while gas-fired production rose 3.3%. This strengthened the role of dispatchable generation in regional price formation and increased market sensitivity to fuel costs, plant availability and developments in the gas market.
The impact on electricity prices was visible across the region. Romania recorded the highest average price at EUR 164.31/MWh, followed by Hungary at EUR 162.04/MWh, Croatia at EUR 142.57/MWh, Serbia at EUR 139.93/MWh, Italy at EUR 134.85/MWh, Bulgaria at EUR 114.61/MWh and Greece at EUR 112.81/MWh. Türkiye remained the cheapest monitored SEE market at EUR 47.36/MWh, despite recording a sharp percentage increase from the previous week.
Northwest Europe, meanwhile, moved in the opposite direction. France, Iberia, Germany, Belgium, Switzerland, Slovakia, Poland, the Netherlands and Austria all recorded weekly price declines, supported by cooler weather following the late-June heat wave and stronger wind generation. This indicates that the increase in SEE power prices was not part of a broader European trend, but rather reflected a distinct regional tightening event.
Cross-border electricity flows further confirmed the regional split. SEE net imports increased 28.2% to 1.25 TWh, with Hungary’s imports surging 157.9% to 202 GWh and Romania’s rising 44.8% to 194 GWh. Serbia also moved from 7 GWh to 90 GWh of net imports. Greece, Bulgaria and Türkiye remained net exporters, although their export balances narrowed during the week.
Gas market conditions provided additional support for regional power prices. TTF futures averaged EUR 43.59/MWh, up 5.5% week on week, with prices moving above EUR 45/MWh by the end of the week. European gas storage was estimated at around 48% full, while the market remained sensitive to LNG flows, risks related to the Strait of Hormuz and the normalization of production in Qatar.
For the Market Trends Group, the key priority is to determine whether the Week 27 tightening drivers will persist. Continued hot weather, weak wind generation, low hydropower output, firm gas prices and rising imports into Hungary, Romania and Serbia would support further strength in SEE power markets. Conversely, cooler temperatures, a recovery in wind generation, improved hydro conditions, softer gas prices or stronger local thermal availability could weaken the current bullish signal.
SEE should therefore be treated as a distinct tightening zone separate from northwest Europe. Romania, Hungary and Serbia currently represent the main pressure points, while gas prices, wind generation, hydropower output and cross-border imports remain the most important early-warning indicators for the regional power market.
