Electricity prices across the SEE region showed a mixed but clearly divergent pattern in Week 11, largely influenced by the ongoing U.S.–Iran conflict, which introduced a significant geopolitical risk premium into global energy markets. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz—through which around 20% of global oil and LNG flows—tightened supply and pushed oil prices higher, increasing marginal generation costs, especially in import-dependent and thermally exposed markets such as Italy. As a result, Italy recorded a notable price increase of 4.43%, maintaining its position as the highest-priced market at €147.54/MWh. In contrast, most Balkan markets experienced declines, with Romania (-4.74%) and Croatia (-4.45%) leading the downward movement, followed by Bulgaria (-3.35%) and Greece (-3.11%), while Hungary (-2.16%) also eased. Serbia remained largely stable (-0.07%), whereas Türkiye diverged sharply with a significant increase of 14.75%, reaching €43.41/MWh.
In Southern Europe during Week 11 of 2026, most SEE markets traded above €100/MWh, with the exception of Türkiye, Greece, and Serbia. Prices ranged broadly from €43/MWh to €148/MWh, reflecting strong regional dispersion. Türkiye recorded the lowest weekly average at €43.41/MWh, while Greece followed as the second-cheapest market at €89.54/MWh after a decline of 3.11%. On the other end of the spectrum, Italy remained the most expensive at €147.54/MWh, up 4.43% week-on-week. Hungary also ranked among the higher-priced markets at €112.77/MWh. In terms of intraday dynamics, most SEE markets reached their weekly peaks on Tuesday, March 10, while the lowest prices were generally observed on Sunday, March 15, indicating typical weekend demand weakness.
Across Central and Western Europe, Week 11 showed pronounced divergence in power prices. Southwestern and Alpine markets experienced strong increases, while core Central European hubs saw declines. France (+23.31%), Spain (+23.18%), and Portugal (+22.22%) posted the largest gains, likely due to reduced renewable output and increased reliance on thermal generation. Switzerland also recorded a significant rise of 16.62%, reaching €143.50/MWh, reinforcing upward pressure in the Alpine region. In contrast, Germany (-12.74%), Poland (-11.08%), and the Netherlands (-6.54%) saw notable decreases, supported by stronger wind generation and easing fuel costs. Other Central European markets, including the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovenia, and Belgium, followed a similar downward trend, indicating a broad regional softening. Early indicators for the following week suggest a downward trajectory in wholesale prices, with Day-Ahead prices on March 18 ranging from €62.97/MWh in Albania and Kosovo to over €103/MWh in Hungary.
Electricity demand across the SEE region weakened in Week 11, declining by 2.19% week-on-week to 16,603 GWh, reflecting lower consumption across nearly all markets. The sharpest drop was observed in Romania (-6.36%), followed by Hungary (-4.60%) and Serbia (-4.55%), likely driven by milder weather conditions. Greece remained relatively stable with a marginal decline of -0.49%, while larger systems such as Italy (-1.55%) and Türkiye (-1.58%) posted moderate decreases that still contributed significantly to the overall regional trend. Bulgaria (-3.19%) and Croatia (-3.32%) also followed the broader pattern of subdued demand, confirming a general cooling in consumption across the region.
Variable renewable energy generation rebounded strongly in Week 11, increasing by 8.2% week-on-week to 2,811 GWh, driven primarily by a surge in wind output (+18.6%), while solar generation remained largely stable (-0.6%). Wind production rose significantly in Türkiye (+28%), Greece (+34%), and Serbia, where output more than tripled, indicating improved wind conditions. Italy continued to lead in total renewable output, with solar generation increasing by 19.5% to 623 GWh, the highest in the dataset. Solar trends were mixed across the region: Romania (+30.5%) and Bulgaria (+11.8%) saw gains, whereas Hungary experienced a dramatic collapse (-98%), sharply reducing its overall RES contribution. Croatia also recorded a steep decline in wind generation (-69%). Overall, the increase in renewables was predominantly wind-driven, offsetting localized volatility in solar output.
Hydropower generation across the SEE region declined notably in Week 11, falling by 10.71% week-on-week to 3,247 GWh, reflecting weaker hydrological conditions. The most significant reductions occurred in Serbia (-74.5%), Bulgaria (-40.1%), and Greece (-29.9%), suggesting reduced inflows and potentially lower reservoir levels. Romania also posted a considerable decline (-16.3%). Türkiye, the region’s largest hydro producer, experienced an 8.5% drop (-200 GWh), which had a substantial impact on overall regional output. Italy recorded a moderate decrease (-4.9%). In contrast, Croatia stood out with a remarkable increase of 255%, partially compensating for regional losses, while Hungary showed a slight uptick (+6.9%) but from a negligible base. The overall trend highlights a broad contraction in hydro availability.
Thermal generation in the SEE region also declined in Week 11, with total output falling by 5.71% week-on-week to 6,180 GWh, driven by decreases in both lignite/coal (-7.03%) and gas-fired generation (-4.68%). Greece saw the steepest drop (-13.3%), where reduced gas generation outweighed minor lignite changes. Hungary (-24.4%) and Croatia (-36.3%) also recorded sharp declines, primarily due to reduced gas dispatch. Serbia experienced a significant contraction (-42.5%), reflecting lower lignite-based baseload generation. In contrast, Romania (+6.2%) and Bulgaria (+12.9%) moved against the trend, increasing lignite output by 21.9% and 19.0%, respectively, indicating a shift toward coal to maintain supply balance. Türkiye remained relatively stable (-1.15%), as increased gas generation (+25.5%) offset declines in coal. Italy posted a modest reduction (-4.1%) despite higher coal use, due to lower gas-fired output.
Cross-border electricity flows in the SEE region moderated in Week 11, with net imports declining by 9.89% to 1,163 GWh, reflecting partial rebalancing across markets. Hungary (-19.5%) and Serbia (-32.0%) reduced their net imports, supported by increased domestic generation and weaker demand. Croatia moved further into net import territory (+22.6%), indicating tighter local supply conditions. Italy, the region’s largest net importer, slightly increased its imports (+2.2%), maintaining its reliance on cross-border supply. Greece remained a net exporter but reduced export volumes by -21.7%, suggesting either tighter domestic conditions or improved regional price alignment. Romania significantly increased its net exports (+108%), while Bulgaria transitioned from net importer to net exporter, highlighting shifting supply-demand fundamentals. Türkiye also expanded its net exports (+31.5%), reinforcing its position as a regional electricity supplier.
