Electricity prices across the SEE region contracted sharply in Week 15 of 2026, reversing the elevated levels seen in the previous week as demand declined, solar output increased in several markets, and both gas and CO₂ prices softened. The steepest price drops were recorded in Bulgaria (-24.6%), Greece (-23.5%), and Romania (-22.8%), while all major regional markets posted double-digit declines, including Croatia (-20.3%), Serbia (-19.3%), and Hungary (-18.6%). This synchronized correction was mainly driven by lower consumption during the Orthodox Easter period, which eased system tightness across interconnected markets. In contrast, Türkiye (+28.9%) moved against the regional trend, reflecting localized supply-demand imbalances.
Across Southern Europe in Week 15, most SEE markets traded below €100/MWh, with prices ranging between approximately €25/MWh and €120/MWh. Türkiye recorded the lowest weekly average at €24.89/MWh, while Greece (€84.69/MWh) became one of the cheaper SEE markets after a -5.77% weekly decline. At the upper end, Italy (€119.89/MWh) remained the most expensive market despite a -11.94% drop, followed by Hungary (€92.19/MWh) among the higher-priced hubs. Daily dynamics showed that most markets peaked on 10 April, while the lowest levels were generally observed on 6 April. Across Europe, electricity prices also followed a broadly bearish trend, driven by weaker demand, lower gas and CO₂ prices, and higher solar output. Notably, France (-51.8%) led declines, while Spain (+194.0%) and Portugal (+182.4%) surged sharply, highlighting strong regional divergence and a partial decoupling of the Iberian market from broader European trends.
At the start of the following week, however, wholesale prices began to rebound, with Day-Ahead levels rising again toward €125–146/MWh in several SEE markets, signaling a return of tightening fundamentals. Despite the Week 15 correction, the market remains sensitive to shifts in weather, renewable output, and cross-border flows.
Electricity demand across SEE fell by 6.77% week-on-week, largely due to the timing of Orthodox Easter (12 April 2026). The most pronounced declines were seen in Greece (-13.9%), Serbia (-12.9%), Bulgaria (-12.6%), and Croatia (-17.0%), while larger systems such as Italy (-9.5%) and Romania (-9.3%) also recorded noticeable reductions. Türkiye (-1.3%) remained relatively stable due to different holiday scheduling and consumption patterns, confirming a clear calendar-driven demand shock across the region.
On the supply side, total variable renewable energy (RES) output declined by 6.6%, but this masked strong internal shifts. Wind generation collapsed by 39.8%, particularly in Greece and Italy (-60%+ each), while solar generation surged by 41.8%, supported by better irradiance and longer daylight hours. Strong solar growth was recorded in Türkiye (+218%), Greece (+33.8%), Italy (+20.6%), and Hungary (+26.7%), reflecting a clear seasonal transition toward solar dominance. Overall, Türkiye stood out with a net +9.3% increase in total RES output, as solar gains offset weaker wind conditions.
Hydropower output increased by 4.8%, led by strong gains in Italy (+20.2%) and Greece (+22.7%), while Romania (+8.3%) remained stable. Croatia recorded a sharp rebound from a low base, whereas Serbia (-59.3%) and Bulgaria (-16.8%) experienced notable declines due to localized conditions. This mixed hydro picture helped balance overall system variability during the week.
Thermal generation fell by 8.3%, with gas-fired output dropping 12.0% and coal/lignite decreasing 3.9%, reflecting both lower demand and stronger renewable penetration. Significant reductions were seen in Greece (-24.5%), Romania (-33.2%), and Hungary (-23.1%), while Serbia (-27.0%) also reduced lignite output. Italy showed mixed dynamics, with lower gas use but a sharp rise in coal generation, indicating internal fuel switching. In contrast, Türkiye increased thermal generation by 8.3%, mainly through higher gas-fired output.
Cross-border electricity flows decreased by 8.3% week-on-week, reflecting the shift toward a more balanced regional system. Bulgaria increased exports significantly (+80.3%), while Romania moved from importer to exporter, supported by stronger hydro output and lower domestic demand. Greece reduced exports sharply (-81.9%), and Türkiye also scaled back outward flows due to higher internal dispatch. On the import side, Italy remained the dominant structural importer, while Croatia and Hungary continued relying on imports. Serbia’s nearly balanced position indicates a normalization of regional flow patterns.
Overall, Week 15 reflects a temporary market easing phase driven by holiday demand reduction, strong solar growth, and lower fuel costs. However, early signs of price recovery suggest that the SEE market remains structurally sensitive, with volatility returning quickly as fundamentals tighten again.
