Day-ahead electricity prices across South-East Europe surged on Monday, reversing sharply from negative weekend levels as demand recovery and weaker renewable generation tightened the regional power balance.
Hungary’s HUPX baseload price climbed to €104.75/MWh, marking a day-on-day increase of €124.6/MWh after Sunday’s deeply negative pricing environment. Similar upward movements were observed across the region, with Romania’s OPCOM reaching €93.42/MWh, Slovenia’s BSP €99.64/MWh, and Croatia’s CROPEX €98.43/MWh. Serbia’s SEEPEX cleared at €82.46/MWh, maintaining a discount to core Central European markets, while Bulgaria and Greece traded near €80/MWh.
The rebound reflects a structural shift from weekend oversupply conditions—driven primarily by strong solar output and suppressed demand—toward a tighter weekday system, where conventional generation re-established its role in price formation.
A key driver behind the price recovery was a significant increase in electricity demand across the SEE-Hungary region. Forecast consumption rose to 28,217 MW, up by 2,988 MW compared with the previous day, as industrial and commercial loads resumed following the weekend lull.
At the same time, renewable generation eased, removing downward pressure on prices. Solar output declined by 329 MW day-on-day, while hydro generation fell more sharply by 637 MW, reflecting weaker hydrological conditions. Wind generation provided only a partial offset, rising by 147 MW, leaving the system increasingly reliant on thermal sources.
This shift in the generation mix pushed the marginal price-setting technology higher on the cost curve, with coal- and gas-fired units regaining influence in peak hours.
Cross-border flows also contributed to the tightening of market conditions. Net imports into the SEE-Hungary region dropped to -245 MW, a decrease of 1,164 MW day-on-day, indicating reduced inflows from core Central European markets.
Lower import availability limited supply-side flexibility and reinforced price convergence across the region, particularly between Hungary, Slovenia and Croatia. However, a notable price spread remained toward Italy, where day-ahead prices reached €122.41/MWh, sustaining export incentives along the Balkan–Italian corridor.
Intraday price structures continued to show pronounced volatility, with deep midday price troughs followed by strong evening peaks. In Hungary, hourly prices ranged from negative levels during solar peak hours to highs exceeding €270/MWh, underlining the growing impact of renewable intermittency on market dynamics.
Fuel markets remained broadly stable, suggesting that the price movements were driven primarily by power market fundamentals rather than input costs. Austrian CEGH gas prices hovered around €45/MWh, while EU carbon allowances remained near €75/t, providing limited directional pressure on electricity pricing.
Across the regional generation mix, nuclear and hydro continued to provide the backbone of supply, accounting for 23% and 21% respectively, while solar contributed 17% and coal 18%. Gas-fired generation remained relatively limited at around 9%, but played a critical role in balancing peak demand.
Serbia remained positioned as a mid-merit market within the regional structure, trading at a consistent discount to Hungary while balancing flows between Central Europe and the southern Balkans. Commercial flow data indicate continued imports from Hungary alongside exports toward Bosnia and Herzegovina and Montenegro, reinforcing its role as a transit and balancing node.
Market participants expect continued volatility driven by the interplay between renewable generation and demand cycles. While strong solar output is likely to sustain downward pressure on midday prices, tightening hydro conditions and stable demand could support elevated evening peaks, maintaining wide intraday spreads across SEE markets.
